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Senior Contributor

Acreage and Prevent plant numbers?

Talking with a very knowledgeable person about acreage certification yesterday. I asked why in this age of instant info technology cant they push a button on the computer and tally up planted and unplanted plus late planted acres in the US?  Next monday is acre certification deadline for both FSA and crop insurance. Why is there confusion about acres? Im sure the Board of trade knows instantly! Do they know something they arent sharing?  I mean c'mon! Is the usda so slow that the august or sept report will be better? What a joke!

6 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Acreage and Prevent plant numbers?

They don’t want any solid numbers. They want to be able to change them.

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Advisor

Lame

Is all 1 can say bout USDA for this issue. 

Lamer yet is they'll never know anything till bout February of 2020.

It's pretty jocular.  MO. 

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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Lame

I posed that exact question to the USDA (called them)....who referred me to the FSA (emailed them).  FSA's response? 

{QUOTE} As for the report to which you are referring, the report is not issued the Farm Service Agency (FSA). Presumably, the referenced report is issued by the National Agricultural Statistics Service and their sources of information include more than FSA acreage reports.  {UNQUOTE}

...I am beginning to see the problem.

#GovtBureaucracy

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Lame

Easy to take potshots from the weeds....

The acre cert deadline is only for you to go in and get an appointment. Some of those are out well in to August in some counties. And since the Pres won't let them hire more people I don't think it is easy to blame FSA about it.

Plus, some who previously certified are coming back in to change certification because they couldn't control themselves and went ahead and planted.

So, FSA won't have a final number till late August, best case. Thus NASS does its own survey, which is obviously just a survey with all the statistical mumbo jumbo that implies.

Anyway, give FSA a break, it is not their rodeo. NASS has a process that they do NOT modify for abnormal events, thus they generate junk data which they freely admit. 

Lets just guess, based upon the ongoing rumors, that there is 7 mill PP corn and 3 mil PP beans. What you going to do with that information? 

For us, the math has been clear, the corn carryout went below zero back on May 15th. A bull market started, and those seldom end in a mere 24 trading days. Well, they never do, but they do have build momentum which takes time. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Lame

The rules for our county is acreage certification is july 15. Last week they added another 5 days.  In our county the deadline is just that. acreage certification not an appointment for it. Our county director mentioned that this year she finally has enough staff to get it done in a very timely manner. Adding staff came about from the first MFP payments last year. Im not blaming FSA for the lack of info they are doing their job but i do think that for some reason usda cant get their crap together.   All the so called analysts for some reason are being stupid saying they really wont know what the acreage is till late fall! What!!  In our county farmers that report to fsa immediately go to their crop ins agent and report the same acreage the same day! All im saying is one push of a button at RMA or at usda will prove exactly what acres and prevent plant will be.  In fact farmers have to report planting dates too so if then they're able to see how late the crops have been planted.Seems any other year there isnt any confusion or hesitation about yields especially if they think its a good crop.

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Senior Contributor

Re: As I've said previously....

As I've said previously, when you go in and certify your acres, that information is immediately entered in to the compute and uploaded to "central command".   It would be easy enough to run a report every evening and update the situation.  I'm sure they do.  And NASS could have the latest infor every night.  It would easy to compare what's been entered with what's expected (from last year) and determine how much is left to come in and the running percentage of PP, etc.

  Not only that, at a certain point, the trends become obvious.  If a 100 of 300 producers report 30%  PP, you can pretty well guess the outcome within a certain error.

And we know that some areas have more problems than others.  For example, Iowa pretty much got their crops planted, Ill, Ind, Ohio, Mi didn't.  Then there's the flooding in Southern states, you can bet the insurance companies know the situation there.

  So, in short, there really no excuse, except to give the end users a few more months to get their feed bought.  If they don't, that's their own fault.