Acreage estimates: Myths & misunderstandings

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

Everybody ready for USDA's big show tomorrow morning? What do you think we'll find out?

Just saw one report that shows why we may see more corn acres. Think this is right? Or, will basic agronomics win out over breakevens that favor corn over soybeans? 

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Also saw an interesting piece from Darrel Good & Scott Irwin over at UIUC about the "myths and misunderstandings" about USDA's planting report and how they gather the info (here's that report). I know folks have been critical of USDA's data collection methods before -- do you think they do the best job they can in coming up with an accurate planting picture? Or, is March 31 just way too early to get a clear enough picture? 

Either way, it'll be a big day! We'll darn sure keep Marketeye hoppin' over there on the trading floor!

[jrsiajdranch]

Well JC are you gonna be at the office for the report or is there some big meeting at the machine shed around cinnamon rolls for you guys? HE HE

BTW not that it matters but here is my guess 92.6 on corn 73.7 on beans.  Hay acres take it in the shorts. cotton gets up to 13.7 million acres.Wheat is hard to tell.  In the end what we intend to do and what we actually do are usually far different things.

Corn carry out gets a 100 milion bu. added and soys get  alot more breathing room. By the end of the day fri. we will be higher beans and wheat with corn off 20 cents.

No I will not bet anything on these picks. Remember who I said was going to the final four?  I am batting real bad right now.

Gotta go. thanx

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

Man, I was going to bring a few of those cinnamon rolls up to your place tomorrow morning to help cheer you up if these markets go screaming to the sky tomorrow after these reports, but then I realized that if the numbers are bearish, maybe it'd be you coming here to buy us the rolls! 

So, how long do you think the pits will be trading these numbers in the morning? Hours, days or longer? 

[GoredHusker]

In terms of coming out with a report this early in the year, they probably do a pretty good job.  However, Mother Nature seems to have a lot more to say about final acres than anything else particularly to the east.  While I can only speak for my general area, guys around here prefer to grow corn over any other crop.  The biggest reason is the consistence of yields from corn when compared with wheat and soybeans.  The biggest yields on corn from last year were generally planted as much as a month later than most would like to plant.  We don't really follow the calendar much around here until we hit June 1. 

It makes more sense to me that USDA just release one acreage report at the end of June.  While I'm sure the report tomorrow will cause some fireworks, it might just be unwaranted if Mother Nature has different plans.  Looking at the local area, I have already seen some things which leads me to believe corn acres will be exceptionally high this year.  Guys who planted irrigated wheat and swore they were going to stay with their rotation have recently fenced the wheat and have cattle grazing it. 

[rightone]

Gonna find out that the govt gets paid for estimating things ( nothing new about what is simply a "jobs" program ).

Gonna find out...that it really matters notta what farmers plant...because they will always plant something.

[jrsiajdranch]

Is there medication for my way of thinking? HE HE

Don't follow me I am lost to!