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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Acres vs. words

In the climate language mutilization we pride ourselves in, Can usda or anyone else actually raise soybean acres from the free fall we are in.  Acres seem to have no support with basis, china and production problems everywhere.  Agriculture with an absolute loss of "grey matter"----- from where will we find the desire to plant anything over 50 to 60 million acres of soybeans????   With basis of -$1.40 for a 180 mile trip to the only market in Kansas --- there is no incentive for increases.  

Crop insurance was a disincentive in 2019 and will continue to be.  

Can words change it for beans.... just a few words from usda..... maybe "imbedded" words ............. like the words that took ARC away when MFP appeared.  ------ like todays headline

"China will buy $14 billion of U.S. ag products this year, $3 billion more than forecast before the Phase One agreement was signed, said USDA Chief Economist Rob Johansson on Thursday."  

Not one person at usda will be flogged if that statement turns our to be a lie.  Or at SF who chose to publish the probable lie.  Or a reader who chooses to repeat it and assume SF verified it.  They all should face the "hole" with Paul Newman in July in Louisiana, when it proves to be fake news.

No  Words have been rendered meaningless...... by those who choose to overuse them.

I don't think so..... by now it is just words,,,, and obviously the chief economist won't bet his eldest grandchild's life on his prediction.  So where I was brought up, you deserve a beating for broadcasting words that are not true.  But words are ran through a blender daily for publication.  There might have been some true words released by usda but they might not have been as tantalizing to destroy as the words they chose...... we will never know.  Two generations into the future people may be able to depend on their information sources not to repeat worthless words mindlessly.  Today we suffer on.

Soybeans will be planted in the corn belt because they are creatures of habit and have institutionalized markets that can enjoy $6 soybeans ...... Even bloomberg can farm there.   But the fringe will find alternative crops as it always does.  

The planter is the only true source of acres count as it always has been.  Those words are true.  Until the floods come.

1 Reply
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Port of Santos, Brazil Marine Traffic

Just took a few minutes to check the bulk carriers at anchorage off  the Port of Santos, Brazil where a good portion of Brazil's soybeans get exported from.

 As expected counted 51 ships waiting to load, every soybean loading slot occupied.  It takes about 4 days to load a ship when during the busy season.  The Horzion Ruby just pulled away at 17:00 local time on it's way to China, due to arrive April 2, carries 41254 MT.

Santos 2-20-20.png