Acres........

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Acres in Millions					Total	Total of
	Corn	Wheat	Soya	Cotton	Corn/Soya	these 4	Total	4 vs % of Total
2006	78.3	57.3	75.5	15.3	153.8	226.4	315.7	0.71725
2007	93.5	60.5	64.7	10.8	158.2	229.5	320.4	0.71636
2008	86.0	63.1	75.7	9.5	161.7	234.3	324.8	0.72132
2009	86.4	59.2	77.5	9.2	163.9	232.3	319.3	0.72764
2010	88.2	53.6	77.4	11.0	165.6	230.2	316.7	0.72687
2011 MARCH 31	92.2	58.0	76.6	12.6	168.8	239.4
2011	91.9	54.4	75.0	14.7	166.9	236.0	315.0	0.74921
2012 MT guess	94.0	57.5	74.0	13.5	168.0	239.0	325.0	0.73538
1996**	79.5	75.6	64.2	14.7	143.7	234.0	334.0	0.70060

I will preface this post by saying, my numbers are not what I think the USDA will print on Friday, they reflect what I see will be the end number based on factors up to this point...........

Also, the point of this chart is not what I think the numbers will be........its to examine what last March's numbers looked like compared to reality...........IMO there is something very interesting.......

Now, think back to last March 31st...........do you think the USDA was sandbagging PP acres??????.........I ask this because there is this magical idea that all these PP acres are going to rocket into corn...........HMMMMMMMMM.............I dont see them...........I see wheat acres taking it in the shorts last year, and if this years wheat acres are as projected that magical 3M more acres is going to wheat.............look at corn and soya total and total of all four and compare 2011 and 2008............

Guys we are running flat out...........and these are perfect spring conditions, which we may get, but if we get some PP acres it just starts chipping away.............and as mentioned on here earlier, soya are buying acres RIGHT NOW, and if we tank corn on Friday you can bet your @zz soya will buy a lot more.............when you run on the edge its hard to keep it there for multiple years.........

Draw your own conclusions, but take it from someone that pretty much nailed the 2011 numbers to the wall..........you can't just make up acres unless you are the USDA...............

FYI, based on the numbers I ran, it appears last year about 30% of the IL corn acres are COC............34% for IA...........50% for NE...........10 and 12% for IN and MN respectively.................thats a lot of acres that are COC which is another reason our yield is so vulnerable.............and fringe areas will favor soya over corn right now..................

As always, Friday will prove to be interesting..............if we miss the rain Thursday, seed will be going in the ground, and depending on Friday's action we might be switching over meters sooner rather than later................happy planting...........

[Hobbyfarmer]

Just wrong wrong wrong

Just think about it a minute...

QE 3 was supposed top already have happened... What happened you ask?

Well my Harbor freight Chinese crystal ball has it all figured out and it is clear as day....

The USDA commandeered those printing presses to print out those acres but they forgot (not being farmers) that acres are quite a bit bigger than $'s and well to get to the # needed by Friday they are smoking them there presses. The problenm with those printed acres they are fabricating is they will go up in smoke before harvest. The yield on those acres will be like money in the bank .005% or less.

JMHO

[roarintiger1]

MT, I'm not very good with numbers......I'm still trying to figure out the 53 weeks in the year thing.

I did take note of Allendale's planted estimates.  They have 3.091 million more corn acres, 2.2 million more wheat acres, and .481 million less beans acres.   This means they are predicting 4.81 million more crop acres to be planted this year over last on just these three crops.

[gbryce]

RoaringTiger, I have wondered about where the extra acres are coming from myself. I thought Every pasture and hayfield had been added in ,10 and ,11 but I guess that we had a few more rocky hills that could be plowed up.

 MT  how long do you expect the USDA will wait to revise the numbers to a more realistic level if planted corn ac. gome out at say 97 mil or something really out there

[timetippingpt]

A couple of points:

1) Remember there is a stocks report as well. From what I hear from knowledgeable folks, there might be a 250mil bu surprise on corn stocks increasing due to better gal/bu ethanol effeciency.

2) Beans buying acres? Really, we heard that one for months last year. The insurance gaurantee for corn simply makes switching to beans non-economic especially in the fringe areas. Remember how everyone said there was no way OH would plant corn in June. They did and yielded pretty well to very well. The insurance gauranteed profit from corn makes the price ratio for new crop meaningless. Not sure why no one gets the implication of market distorting subsidized insurance.

Just do the math, you just have to plant corn in the fringe areas, especially with the trend distorted....errrr trend adjusted....new yields. 🙂

Many have watched $6 new corn turn into $5.40 new corn. The same will happen in beans in the near future, now is the time to plan for what to do about it.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

likes to move 300M around like its their sandbag.............so anything could happen, but it sounds like someone has been drinking the Tara koolaid...............others think ethanol usage is underestimated.............clank clank clank goes the grain bing..........

beans buying acres...........dont know if you farm or not...........but 5 new crop vs 13 new crop on ground that will struggle to hit 140-150 farm avg vs 45-60 farm avg.............soya win when you look at inputs and risk..............so yes they are buying acres............and you ask, well who grows 140 bushel or less farm avg corn anymore............well apparantly a lot of people, because the nat avg came in around 148............and something had to offset all that 240 bushel corn that came out of SD, MN, NIA............LMAO..............trust me, there is a lot of 100 bushel corn ground in that 90 plus M number...............

as for insurance and subsidized............I dont disagree, it distorts a lot of things...........apparently you have not listened to me when I said it distorts the acres balance by pushing growers to plant a less efficient crops when opportunity cost are evaulated on total production only.............hence my 164 and 14 challange..............its a trade off...........to get the yield you need COS acres in flat black.........that means less acres and less volume............to get the volume you need more acres, many of which dilute down to fractions of gain...........

[vrbuck]

Ken I don't know if 250 million is the numbers they will increase in the stocks.  I had been using an increas of 75 million because of increased efficience in the ethanol market and another 75 million increase in stocks because of less export demand (there I said it MT no demand).  I have a grand total of 150 increase in stocks.  You put that on the old wasde 800 stocks and you bring it to 950.  If I use your figure of 250 stocks baloon upwards of 1125 and we should already be at three dollar corn since we are about  the magin 1000 million figure.

[vrbuck]

it isnt very hard just get out a calender and count the weeks from the first week in jan.  the first week in january is week 19.  count each following week and you get 53.  week one was the first week in sept and it was only a one day week, just add the weeks.  It really isn't rocket science and if you can't understand basic usda methodology your in deep trouble.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Be involved at all..........let alone their methodology........last time I check their methodology was bunk..........only recently has their errors been aired because of tight supply/demand ratios............when we were burying the world in grain they could afford to be wrong because either way we had plenty.............they have zero skin in the game.......they don't produce anything but debt to the government budget..........we pay these people to print numbers that move a market they are not attached to..........seems wrong.....

[steeringwheelholder]

I'll chip in and throw a dart at 93.5 corn and 74.9 beans.

I think the idea of a massive shift in late winter acres is always overstated. Whenever I have switched acres from when I ordered seed last fall was after the March USDA report threw prices one way or the other. And that has been fairly rare. Generally 2/3 corn and 1/3 beans. It worked out this year to be heavier on beans on my farm, close to 50/50.

I expect any new corn/bean acres are going to come from wheat, and other swing acres in the northern plains and upper Midwest. Some from the south. Here in the corn belt, I think we have had the pastures and crp in crops for years now. Wheat is getting the beating here. Almost none planted except by hog operations for poo ground.

Whatever the numbers are, you know it's gonna be limit one way or the other at open due to overreaction!