AgPoll: USDA corn yield forecast?

[John_Walter]

Report on the site here this morning (full story) that national corn crop ratings are the worst since '89, when the national reports began.  How low will USDA go in its July 11 Supply/Demand Report, do you think?

[sw363535]

Compared to last year---------------------------1or 2 bushels lower.   Usda is still denying last years drought.

I predict farmer owned storage will triple in the next 12 months-----------and it will be full of mystery crops

[Hobbyfarmer]

The poll asked what the USDA will say NOT what is really happening. The other thing to keep in mind is that the #'s from them are already "old" news and we are all talking like we already missed this coming weekends shower event.

Many #'s are going to be messed up due to all the milo that just went into powder dry dirt for insurance pmts ... probably a million acres there that are lumped into the corn #'s that will most likely = 0 

With the weather they are having in the non irrigated west that will be toasted this week (including mine) and the irrigated that still can't counter act the 110+ actual temps, wind, and low humidity the yields are already irreverably in severe decline. The National yield if we miss this weekends hail mary rain hopes will be <140.

[Buckley_HF]

USDA 165, reality 150 heading lower

[sw363535]

Usda--------------will say-------159.    Reality will moderate it a little.   And hobbys right reality is not important to the market, usda has a reputation to uphold corrections will take months----even years.  But with all the insurance planting we will probably have to increase the planted acres.  🙂

It is a sad sight in W ks. milo being drilled on blowing ground and across the road is milo planted three weeks ago with a 20-25% stand.

[Blacksandfarmer]

Hobby I agree with you. I doubt USDA lowers yields that much in the coming report. They will probably be in the 160 range. I doubted 166 from day one!! They kept prices low for months and the grain continued to move. I don't know what the weather will bring over the next two weeks but things are getting pretty dire in some key parts of the cornbelt.

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

It looks like we farmeres are aabout split on what USDA will say.

Here''s some info from U/Ill on yields.  Just look at the graphs.

1.  Bad weather hurts more than good weather helps

2.  We need 4-5' of rain in July - more doesn't help all that much (but I wonder if we get credit for any cactch-up; the paper doesn't talk to that)

3.  We need cooler than normal temps.

70+% of the corn is planted in areas that are not does so well.  Some areas, as we know, are doing very, very well.

http://www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/06/where_should_we_be_now_with_co.html

Here are the conclusions, but you have to read the reaport to get the meat of it.   

Conclusions

Current conditions point to a U.S. average corn yield below trend again in 2012, but the extent of the yield shortfall will remain uncertain for another 10 weeks. With the large increase in corn acreage this year, an average yield above 150 bushels would require minimal rationing during the year ahead. Based on current and upcoming weather conditions, however, there is risk that the average yield will fall below that level, requiring higher prices to ration the crop. The USDA’s June 29 Acreage report, on-going weather conditions, and weekly crop condition ratings will be followed closely in order to assess production prospects. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will provide the first survey-based yield forecast of the season in the August 10 Crop Production report.

Issued by Scott Irwin and Darrel Good
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
University of Illinois 

[marketeye]

For what it's worth, a floor trader just told me that the market is trading a 147 bu. acre U.S. corn yield.

Mike

[Hobbyfarmer]

That assessment forgot to say that of that 4/5 inches of rain i inch needs to be July 1 and the second inch needs to be July 3 or 4.

Once corn is in "permenant wilt" it is TOO LATE to do anything but build next years subsoil moisture profile. Southern Ill is already there in many places.

[kraft-t]

They are getting 5 inches per hour in places with one place having an accumulation of 28 nches.

At kleast when Jeb Bush was governor he would share with Iowa. That shows  what happens when you elect a tea bagger.