Al Kluis Is Long Term Bullish Grains

[JimMeade]

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crops/long-term-price-cycles-turn-higher-for-corn-soybe...

Have you read Al Kluis piece on the grain future?  He says demand is great and we are one weather scare away from substantially higher prices.

I don't disagree a bit.  It makes perfect sense to me.  My plan is to be able to take advantage of just such a price increase if it happens in 2018.

My other plan is to be able to survive, indeed, to make a little money, if we have another good crop.  I don't see any other option than to be ready to do both.  I haven't figured out yet how to do this, but I don't see any option.  Waiting for a weather market that may not happen means being sure I'll take a low price if the big crop comes in.

[ihtractortherap]

I think we all agree about the one weather scare. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. What if don't get the weather event? My plan is to sell if we reach recent yearly highs in early spring 10.40 beans and 4.25 corn. Prolly do minimum price contracts and buy the call premium

[illinifarmer]

10.40 and 4.25$ that’s where I’ve been priced for three years have yet to get it. Every time it gets close the locals bump basis and take their own profits. Farmers cash price is being double middleman if not tripled. GL

[elcheapo]

well from what I've seen in the past.......we'll have wx problems ((so as a dry high plains))....and then the trade says "oh that's just

a local thing, world wide things are ok"..........and then if it gets worse......."oh we have a big supply, even with a reduction, we

are still ok, and we'll still raise a crop somewhere"............

but here is the rub, if we have a weather problem as significant to make a significant change in the markets.......chances are YOUR crop

could be in trouble......nothing worse when prices go up, and you have a short crop.

in this situation, using the market might be easier (and do I dare say cheaper)......ok, yes i'll admit i'm currently on a high dose of

prednisone for my breathing........can't sleep due to that so I don't know if its the prednisone or sleep deprivation.....

if you could take a position......without a lot of cost......and somehow a "fix" so you wouldn't have the broker calling at 3 in the morning

saying you need to make a margin call..........you could keep loading money in it.......then suddenly, when your out in the field

or under a piece of equipment working on it, the market goes the opposite on you, and there goes the $$$$

I guess you could be fancy, and "draw your line in the sand"......and to act as insurance on constant margin calls

have another position to make up for it..

BA was showing off his early Christmas present.......I wonder how much he has made already ???

[northnd]

Agree. Had the lowest wheat acres since records were kept. A large part of North Dakota and Montana had massive abandonment of wheat acres and/or low yields. Didn’t matter. IMHO USDA flubbed the abandonment number and haven’t heard much about the 5-10 bu/acre yields in Montana. Magically the Ukraine and Russia more than made up the difference and we are still awash in wheat. Go figure.

[bkadds]

Al has no more clue than many of us.  He has only recommended selling 10% of 2017 corn crop.  Better hope for a rally with 90% sitting out there.

[ihtractortherap]

Time to sell more subscriptions.

[k-289]

Maybe  Al  can  elaborate on the expression LONG -  long time coming , far, far away  & next  the word  IF  comes into play  ? ?

Bases - excuses  are a cliff hanger mystery ?     

[elcheapo]

As Spock would say, in a time and glaxy far far away