Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,096
Registered: ‎10-18-2016

All Bad News In The Market?

Is all the bad news we can dream of already in the market? 


If it is, maybe going long or at least waiting for a good bump is a good plan.  Unless it isnt.  Smiley Happy



Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,324
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: All Bad News In The Market?

By "bad news" do you mean factors that make it go down?   Smiley Happy    I think very little news that is positive to prices are factored in.  Last yr with the terrific yields, it and excellent conditions, no burn out hills, no going around wet spots and up until July there wasn`t any drown outs. 


I don`t see that this year...oh I know in sw Minnesota they`re doing a jig how wonderful things are, but a chuck of Iowa (can`t speak for other I states) is too wet.  I`ve said back in the winter we needed an abnormally dry spring just to have a "moist spring" and so far it`s been plenty wet.  It was a hellaciously wet fall, late summer and winter here was wet and we`ve never recovered and dried out.  The weight of the water in the soil is too heavy for tile to work properly, it`s common to see water standing on new tile lines and the culvert at the ditch is just dribbling. 


The forecast isn`t good to be planting in April, unless May is abnormally dry that will be a challenge too. So, I wouldn`t get too wild about selling anything at these prices.  Oh I know it`s plenty carryover and stuff, but to plant in the mud, the crop`s a dud and these prices do not only not reflect that, they are priced for an expectation of a bumper crop.   Oh it could still happen, but every day that goes by with the planter sitting idle, the odds move the opposite direction.


Anyway just my 2¢