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Veteran Advisor

All-Time Peak For Grain Production-IGC

Here's the summary of the latest International Grains Council Report Thursday. Corn crop estimates hit all-time highs.

 

With further upward revisions for wheat and maize (corn), the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2016/17 is 23mt higher m/m (month-on-month). Output is now placed at an all-time peak of 2,069mt, up by 3% y/y (year-on-year).
The largest adjustment this month is for maize and is nearly entirely due to a sustained improvement in crop prospects in the US.

 

Changes for wheat follow the same pattern as last time, as increases for the CIS and the US are again partly offset by a reduced figure for the EU. Ample availabilities and low prices are seen encouraging
feed demand, which accounts for most of the 17mt m/m consumption boost.

 

Despite this, the stocks number is raised by 4mt from before, to a new high of 492m. At 330mt, the forecast for trade is up by 6m m/m, but is still 4% below the record in 2015/16.

 

Due to an improved outlook in the US amid favourable growing conditions, world soyabean production is projected 4mt higher than in last month’s report, at a peak of 325m, an increase of 3% y/y. With
total uptake seen unchanged from July, aggregate ending stocks are lifted slightly, to 31.5mt, albeit still representing the second consecutive annual fall, including a mild retreat in the major exporters.

Global import demand is anticipated to rise further, to a high of 136mt, on expanded deliveries to China.

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Advisor

Re: All-Time Peak For Grain Production-IGC

It is sort of an accepted principle that feed and residual use of grains rises in big crop years so I won't fight that theme.

 

But I do wonder how much room for expansion there is given poor to negative margins in hogs, dairy, broilers, eggs.

 

As I said, I wouldn't die arguing against the notion that total grain production may fall a bit below that forecast but also think that USDA and IGC demand estimates are plenty optimistic.

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Advisor

Re: All-Time Peak For Grain Production-IGC

BTW, as far as my ruminations over pod count and a 51 bpa national soy yield.

 

If you add about 5mmt to that soy carryout number it gets a lot less interesting.

 

I may turn out to be wrong on everything but I have a guiding principle which is that weather, either nationally or globally, almost always fails to cooperate with farm policies in the short to imtermediate term.

 

True 'nuff that if you extrapolate production/use along a trendline things appear to kinda sorta work out. That almost never happens and in fact tends to have a Murphy factor in there.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: All-Time Peak For Grain Production-IGC

eagle eye i'm surprised at you.............with a headline like that you would think you are writing for the national

enquirer rather than successful farming !!!

 

yes, could be good crops........but they are failing fast in these parts.....many have not got over their wheat ground since harvest........rain....rain and more

rain.......beans looking good, but now, too much rain, and have insects and disease attacking them.........milo looks good.....but we are starting to

see alot of sugar cane aphids.........so another $11 to 22 bucks an acre to spray.....along with low prices..........

 

50% chance of rain each day and night thru tuesday.

 

corn is going backwards.......seeing disease in the ears..................one or two reports of some "nasty" stuff in the corn already.......which could

throw everything off.

 

need to amend the saying "rain makes grain"........to "rain makes rotted grain".

 

going from the frying pan into the fire.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: All-Time Peak For Grain Production-IGC

Wonder how many acres the International grain council farms??

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