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Veteran Contributor

Re: All things priced in?

CX   Do you have a perception, as I do, that "the market" seems to be taking longer and longer to find equilibrium?  I am thinking of spring of 2012, when it took until June, 2-4 weeks after farmers already knew there was a problem, for "the market" to get uncomfortable enough with potential supply to begin trading higher.  Are we experiencing that again now, or as I started out with in this thread, is the current TRUE situation fully priced in?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: All things priced in?

Canuck,

that is a loaded query for me...would hardly know where to begin.

 

Historically, it has taken springs like US had a lot longer to find the supply part of equation. otherwise there are so many factors that go in to it. are talking cbot C/B? what are y'alls prices, relatively. do you have futures exchanges. i suppose my best answer, is these markets rationed from last yr & previous - they like to stay in a comfort zone until they're no longer welcome - until they have to ---human nature. i think we are in a 50 -100 yr rare of a season - like 50, 100 yr floods, etc....so yes, things are different....the nature of urge to stay in the old norm creates more tension when universal/mother nature patterns have been more extreme.

 

finally, i default to Palousers simple explanation - that futures are (always been) a lagging indicator of the ever fluid economic reality....that's another point.....always fluid (in motion-in the flow of instant now) as beings, we ARE rarely there, but glimpses now & then. THE MKT IS ALWAYS THERE. whereas we can see a storm brewing up ahead in the future or remember last year, etc

 

the now takes time to catch up to the future-----its a math - derivative - rabbit hole my friend.

 

let me answer you directly to sum - BOTH are true ----hope you understand...any given moment-mkt IS TRUE SITUATION- to the other - LAST SUMMER ENOUGH EMRACED SEEING BURNING CROPS (so it became true) critical mass or the USDA (1 of these 2 things has to occur) to change the tide of a mkt.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: All things priced in?

Looks like the market is "pricing in" yields that are more optimistic than most farmers on this discussion board!  Or are there technical targets they are gunning for today?  C-X-1??

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Veteran Advisor

Re: All things priced in?

r u day trading? u want to pm me - beansX are rangbound 1330-1400 till report.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: All things priced in?

No. Not day trading now. Don't have a futures position on either. Looking to price some basis contracts in next while tho. Hoping to catch a bounce in SX to price into.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: All things priced in?

so then perhaps consider delaying pricing any contracts till after Th?

 

you have gotton the Smiley Wink re: crop -  I mean, how do you think US crops have faired with 7 drops of rain in over a month??

 

cmon!!!

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Veteran Contributor

Re: All things priced in?

You got 7 drops of rain????? I am so jealous I can hardly stand it. Hotter than blazes here again today, was hot and dry Saturday, and not much hope of any precip. in the forecast. Too late for the corn, too late for most of the beans, but a little bit of rain would be good for the soul. I would almost enjoy mowing lawn. Almost. My wife knocked the tops off of some of the junk that managed to grow somehow-cactus, I think. Otherwise, the mowers have been idle since just after July 4th. I expect coyotes and road runners to show up anytime now. I think Speedy Gonzales has already been through here.

Veteran Advisor

Re: All things priced in?

Mike,

 

i hope your ins coverage is excellent!!!Smiley Happy

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Senior Contributor

Re: All things priced in?

Canuck, you are one of the few  sane posters here!   100%, the mkt tries its best to price in  unfolding reality. It is SEP 12, variation from here  in crop size will be limited. 

 

The cowd seems desperate for a  bull turn,  why,   other than all producerswant higher.Which doesn't really cut it.  .

  

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