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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Alright bears, lets hear it.........

I want to know why, when and how far...........this thing drops, if it drops...........seems like everyone is ready to jump off the wagon for fear its rolling down the hill out of control........

 

again why, when and how far..........

 

just a reminder, for those comments about a change in fundamentals, I would like to remind you that approx 10 months ago to the day corn traded with a 4 in front of it.............so by logic and reasoning if fundamentals have changed why would corn stop at 4????????a situation like what you guys seem to be chirping at would put a 2 in front of corn less than a year ago.......

 

is that really a fundamental change or trend if corn goes from 7 to 6 or even 5 for awhile...........before going back to 6 or 7 or 8.........

 

the assumption that bulls don't sell is ignorant..........selling with a 7 and 8 allows for a lot of 5 and 6 sales and still be money ahead compared to a bear...........only if corn puts a 4 in front of it for an extended period of time would a bear be right.........

 

so please lay out a case where that happens with 2011 and 2012 crop..........again, layout a compelling case and some might listen.........funny part is they will still be money ahead compared to a bear............it has paid to listen to the bull case, and will continue to pay until things break down to early fall 2010 levels.............

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28 Replies
johndoeQ
Contributor

Re: Alright bears, lets hear it.........

During the dot.com days there used to be people working for the funds, whos job was was to go on message boards and influence investors.  They where called Paid Pumpers.  I am smelling a little Pump and Dump lately.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

lol.........

is that your final answer?????????

 

I suppose you can compare a dot.com website to food...........do you just chew on the monitor, or maybe its better as a smoothie.........do you feed the computer to cattle as is, or run it thru a tub grinder........

 

 

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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: Alright bears, lets hear it.........

here are your answers:

 

why? fear

when? now

how far? who knows

 

fundamentals mean close to nothing in this environment. forgetting grains for just a moment, gold is down nearly ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS IN ONE DAY! silver is down 16% today alone!!! that is like corn dropping a dollar in one day!!! can you imagine? the fortunes made and lost in the past two days are staggering to think of.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Alright bears, lets hear it.........

just like when oil was nearing 120............it had no business being that elevated............neither did gold and silver........

 

until the day comes Wal-Mart takes gold coins as currency, its nothing more than a hedge play...........if things were about ready to implode the big Hedge Funds would be after GOLD...........INSTEAD they are going to CASH for the weekend........

 

as for silver, its more of an industrial metal trying to act precious..............when GOLD and COPPER are getting smashed SILVER is going to get destroyed...........

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: Alright bears, lets hear it.........

I have no idea how much more the move down is and for how long.  Does today's price stop the hurry up and combine early to get better price?  Does five dollar corn change what moisture you take it out of the field on the bushels you don't have contracted?  Or will it take four dollar corn to do that?

 

Bigger question, if it was all about the economy, why didn't livestock crash too?  Brent crude is still over 100 bucks.  Apple stock is still over 400. 

 

Obviously, those that said we needed a bummer corn crop this year were wrong. 

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Just because someone thinks

The market offered some great opportunities for sales does not mean that we are bears. It simply means we thought the offers were too good to pass up. Plus the constant bullish drone on these pages may influence some folks to take risks they cannot afford. Of course ypou are right until you are wrong. Plus you make a mistake every time you sell. Either you sell too much or not enough.

 

The point being you are not going to get all the market offers. Why not go to the bank with solid bids rather than betting your profits on even better profits that just may evaporate? 

 

There is a distinct difference between marketing and speculation. I would say that marketing involves taking opportunity when it presents itself. Speculation is simply gambling whether you are betting on paper or physical grain.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

So.........

if you are not a bear..............do you think the market goes up from here??????????

 

or do you think it goes down from here?????????

 

lets say a 6 month time frame...........

 

if you think the market goes down from here over the next 6 months, how is that not bearish..........

if you think the market goes up from here over the next 6 month, then why sell HERE...........

 

just asking

 

go ask someone that marketed their 2010 crop with 3's in front of it..........ask em if they took a risk they couldn't afford..........and how that worked out.........can't stick your head in the sand about facts.......

 

I am fully aware grains have taken a breather.........world macros and harvest are here, corn ought to have a 2 and 3 in front of it if things are going to collapse.........don't sweat the small stuff, if you needed cash that bad you would have been sold out far before now.........

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sonoma72
Veteran Contributor

Re: So.........

I would tend to agee with kraft, there were nice opportunities, I am happy.    But who has to be a bull or bear?  How about a realist, recognizing that there is speculative money awash in the grain markets, driving the highs, too high, and the lows too low.   I have no idea what some investor in London, with a 5% stake of his portfolio in the cbot grain complex is thinking today...   IMO, corn going from the prices of august 2010 to where they were a month ago, is absurd.  Just like gold dropping $100 in one day.  Also recogizing that when that speculative money is "needed" to pay other bills, the price will fall.  Farmers aren't the only ones that need to sell assets to pay bills.  In this case, really big bills.

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idalivered
Advisor

Re: Alright bears, lets hear it.........

Might be the best thing that has happened to all of us. I would hope large livestock feeders would get coverage for feed needs. cattle markets have held up well as have pork exports. ethanol wil keep grinding away with $6 corn , but was getting tight with $7. China's feed needs have not gone anywhere and they are VERY savvy traders. If they don't step in soon to replenish their inventory will be a big surprise. Our coops margin account got to take a big deep breath,too. So , let's all pick corn put it in the bin and talk the week before thanksgiving. Be safe, people.

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