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Senior Contributor

Re: All that tough talk isn’t going to ...

What trump has done is expose how dumb the electorate is!  He is playing his supporters as fools!  You can't win a trade war against China and trump knows it!

Advisor

Re: All that tough talk isn’t going to ...

As best I could tell, farmers were near unanimous for Trump and any mild suggestion that perhaps the trade matters wouldn't turn out in their best interests was treated as ludicrous. A recent poll from Purdue showed better than 3/4th still of the opinion that they'd be the better for it in the long run.

Farmers really won't matter much in the upcoming Presidential election except for maybe 150,000 total in WI, MI and PA out of a total of 15M or so (1%).

There are probably enough swingy farm state Senate races that Dems need to offer something to farmers but they are getting rarer. IA is one this year- actually about the only one that comes to mind.

That probably ought to keep some people awake at night.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: All that tough talk isn’t going to ...

For a of you that have not figured it out BA Deere is a Trump Troll most likely base in Russia.  All of his posts should be taken as miss direction. 

Give me a break China's economy is crashing at 6.25% growth rate.  I was born at night but it wasn't last night.

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Advisor

Re: All that tough talk isn’t going to ...

China's bilateral trade surplus with the US is abut 4 of their GDP- about 2% of ours- although now going the wrong direction.

The trade war has hurt growth there, here and almost everywhere as business investment stalls due to uncertainty. 

But what we have done is elevate the position of the hardliners in China, making any future beneficial deal less likely.

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Contributor

Re: All that tough talk isn’t going to ...

Perhaps right now as far as usa ag production.   Take away 2+billion usa corn exports and the world carryout is under 2billion bu-way too tight.   China has the armyworm which, according to Reuters and Bloomberg, may cost them 20% of corn crop.(50mmt)   They are already using 1billion bu more corn than they produce-wouldn't take long for them to start importing billion+ bu/year. India had problems with armyworm and are importing corn from the Ukraine.   China thought they could do away with usa soy production and ended up with ASF-where it started is anyone's guess, but it showed up after they scoured the world for replacement protein.   Now they lost approx 150 million head of hogs and is showing up in pork prices there.   ASF also spread to Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos Russia and eastern Europe.   The only grain that would possibly work is wheat-northern hemisphere.   Australia is having problems the past couple of years, SA Brazil has lost some of their crop and Argentina is having drought problems so far. Europe is about as far as they can go in wheat, which leaves Russia and Ukraine-as long as they don't go to war.   China is self sufficient in wheat-barely.

   The idea is the world's food supply can be severely affected in a few short months-major volcano eruption, new disease in plants or animals, pest invasions, droughts, floods, etc.   Personally, I feel that using food as a political weapon is self-defeating-should never happen.   China is pushing Brazil to deforest the Amazon to insure a food supply.   May turn that region into a semi-desert or other parts of Brazil-losing all that plant cover from the sun.   SA seems to get one good crop about every third year.

 

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Advisor

Re: As far as Brazil’s crops go ....

As far as Brazil’s crops go, it’s more like two or three good crops out of four and getting better. Remember, previously Brazil’s soybean production was concentrated in the south, now it’s south, central and soon to northwest.  That gives them a hedge against a one region crop failure.

But what really needs to happen is that Americans need to learn how to compete again, period, instead of trying to wall itself off, like they’re doing currently.

Walling your country off never worked for anyone in the past, and it won’t work for us.

 

Veteran Advisor

Re: As far as Brazil’s crops go ....

How competitive do we need to become?  Grow corn for $2, and$6 for beans?  $3 or dare we hope for $3.50 wheat?  Maybe we need to find a way to farm that doesn’t need exports to be profitable?  Just asking, I don’t have an answer that I like either 

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: As far as Brazil’s crops go ....

I think it could be more aptly worded that America needs to be allowed to compete again.   China with a closed economy and everything they do to take advantage American companies along with their espionage.   Ag wise, we could put all kinds of corn in there under their local prices except for the 3mmt import limit-need to protect their local farmers.   Look at the support prices India has limiting ag imports into that country.   Europe had all kinds of barriers, although some are coming down now.   Brazil is now-"you clear the land and its yours" or something like that.   Brazil has a tariff of 50%(?) on ethanol over a certain number to protect their producers.   Canada had an ungodly protection scheme to protect their dairy farmers-they dumped all kinds of dairy into this country and around the world.   Now though, Trudeau has to pay their dairy farmers if his party is going to stay in power.   Currently, PNW soybeans are around $1/bu lower than Brazil.   Our pork would be flying to China if it were not for the 72% tariff they put on-because they would rather have someone easier to deal with after the election.   Hopefully their people will give Xi an earful about it-if it matters.   N Korea has been their puppet for 70 years now and they let them starve to death-just for example.   Over the years, food aid came from countries other than China.

   Personally, I do not think that America will ever wall themselves off-its not in us-but we do like fairness and equality.   JMHO

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Honored Advisor

Re: All that tough talk isn’t going to ...

Yeah someone that believes economic numbers coming out of Red China is a prime candidate to "buy a bridge". 

https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/a-forensic-examination-of-chinas-national-accounts/  

 

China’s national accounts are based on data collected by local governments. However, since local governments are rewarded for meeting growth and investment targets, they have an incentive to skew local statistics. China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) adjusts the data provided by local governments to calculate GDP at the national level. The adjustments made by the NBS average 5% of GDP since the mid-2000s. On the production side, the discrepancy between local and aggregate GDP is entirely driven by the gap between local and national estimates of industrial output. On the expenditure side, the gap is in investment. Local statistics increasingly misrepresent the true numbers after 2008, but there was no corresponding change in the adjustment made by the NBS. We provide revised estimates of local and national GDP by re-estimating output of industrial, wholesale, and retail firms using data on value-added taxes. We also use several local economic indicators that are less likely to be manipulated by local governments to estimate local and aggregate GDP. The estimates also suggest that the adjustments by the NBS were insufficient after 2008. Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDP growth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in 2016 is 7 percentage points lower.

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Honored Advisor

Re: American farmers need to remember ...

 

I understand your point but it has a few issues....... seeing (south) korea....... your first misleading point...probably the most advanced country in the world the last 70 years.......... we all slant facts to our viewpoint.  South Korea happens to be the 13th largest wheat import market, the 4th largest importer of corn and 4th in Beef  -- just a few -- they import a lot.------- doesnt appear to be all that "self sustainable"  and is not an average country in the world.  (also the 6th largest importer or cherries---- since we might be cherry picking examples)        10th largest importer of cotton.  if your trying to slight of hand the idea that china and north korea, japan, etc etc are self sufficient --- it is a stretch.

Corn    the 4 largest importers of corn in the world are the top 4 customers of the US(because we produce the largest available supply in the world)... and china is not one of them.  The 7th largest importer of Corn is Egypt and they import 30+% more corn than China... (from all customers)

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Agriculture is not our biggest export......... and trade does not hinge on agriculture..... it hinges on safety and security.  Korea is such a good example.  I doubt that the world is going to isolate itself from the US. Nor is Korea... whichever one your using as an example.   

And it seems that the US is (at its own cost) is committed to keep trade viable in the world.  ..... Agriculture has a problem.  We don't compete..... we are not allowed to compete, by the very leaders that we send to DC, bought and paid for by the crime syndocates on the coasts, we call political parties(both very wounded right now).  -----  Every bushel of anything that leaves the US to a country that is not meeting our standards  should include a tariff that covers the cost of environmental regulation to produce it.  If not we should roll back every regulation to the 1980's and live with legal responsibilities.   An environmental tariff is not a war, it is just living up to our rhetoric.  That is a much better way to spread environmental responsibility than being the worlds fool in trade negotiations ( then building private foundations on the kickbacks)   The envoronmental "tool" is nearly worn out.

2019 is already taking care of the cut back in acres.... corn, beans, etc.   Economic choices will keep it down in the future.  No problem that is taken care of......... agriculture has got to relearn the traditional gothic farm style we all think we are and stopbeing wards of the state.  And it would benefit us to stop feeding the technology socialist movement to get the bells and whistles.  If you think we are going to compete in the world and get wealthy farming, you need to talk to those rich vineyard owners out west  who tell funds managers to sell corn and beans.