An Alternative Projection for Corn Crop 2012/13

[saturated]

 
TABLE 1:                       
                                           A                       B                        A                    B       
Year                             2011/12          2011/12            2012/13        2012/13       
Planted(000)                91,900           91,900              95,864          95,864       
Harvested(000)            84,000            83,629            88,725          88,195       
Yield                               147.2               147.2                 164               155       
Production(000)    12,358,000    12,310,200    14,550,900    13,670,206       
Carry-In(000)           1,128,000          500,000          801,000          105,200       
D. Usage(000)     11,005,000     11,005,000     11,570,000    10,764,000       
Exports(000)           1,700,000       1,700,000       1,900,000       1,960,000       
Ending St.(000)         801,000          105,200        1,881,900       1,051,406    

 
TABLE 2:                               
Crop Yr.      2007/08    2008/09    2009/10    2010/11    2011/12     Avg.       
Domestic    10300       10207        11086       11220        11005    10763.6       
Exports           2437        1849         1980           1835          1700      1960.2       
                                                                                                     Total    12723.8    

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf

[saturated]

 
TABLE 3:                               
Year    Planted    Harvested    %    10/yr    5/yr    % of 5yr       
1970    66863    57358    85.78%                   
1971    74179    64123    86.44%                   
1972    67126    57513    85.68%                   
1973    72253    62143    86.01%                   
1974    77935    65405    83.92%        85.57%    98.08%       
1975    78719    67625    85.91%        85.59%    100.37%       
1976    84588    71506    84.53%        85.21%    99.21%       
1977    84328    71614    84.92%        85.06%    99.84%       
1978    81675    71930    88.07%        85.47%    103.04%       
1979    81394    72400    88.95%    86.02%    86.48%    102.86%       
1980    84,043    72961    86.81%    86.12%    86.66%    100.18%       
1981    84,097    74524    88.62%    86.34%    87.47%    101.31%       
1982    81,857    72719    88.84%    86.66%    88.26%    100.66%       
1983    60,207    51479    85.50%    86.61%    87.74%    97.45%       
1984    80,517    71897    89.29%    87.14%    87.81%    101.69%       
1985    83,398    75209    90.18%    87.57%    88.49%    101.91%       
1986    76,580    68907    89.98%    88.12%    88.76%    101.38%       
1987    66,200    59505    89.89%    88.61%    88.97%    101.03%       
1988    67,717    58250    86.02%    88.41%    89.07%    96.57%       
1989    72,322    64783    89.58%    88.47%    89.13%    100.50%       
1990    74,166    66952    90.27%    88.82%    89.15%    101.26%       
1991    75,957    68822    90.61%    89.02%    89.27%    101.49%       
1992    79,311    72077    90.88%    89.22%    89.47%    101.57%       
1993    73,239    62933    85.93%    89.26%    89.45%    96.06%       
1994    78,921    72514    91.88%    89.52%    89.91%    102.19%       
1995    71,479    65210    91.23%    89.63%    90.11%    101.25%       
1996    79,229    72644    91.69%    89.80%    90.32%    101.51%       
1997    79,537    72671    91.37%    89.94%    90.42%    101.05%       
1998    80,165    72589    90.55%    90.40%    91.34%    99.13%       
1999    77,386    70487    91.08%    90.55%    91.18%    99.89%       
2000    79,551    72440    91.06%    90.63%    91.15%    99.90%       
2001    75,702    68768    90.84%    90.65%    90.98%    99.85%       
2002    78,894    69330    87.88%    90.35%    90.28%    97.34%       
2003    78,603    70944    90.26%    90.78%    90.22%    100.04%       
2004    80,929    73631    90.98%    90.69%    90.20%    100.86%       
2005    81,779    75117    91.85%    90.76%    90.36%    101.65%       
2006    78,327    70638    90.18%    90.61%    90.23%    99.95%       
2007    93,527    86520    92.51%    90.72%    91.16%    101.48%       
2008    85,982    78570    91.38%    90.80%    91.38%    100.00%       
2009    86,382    79490    92.02%    90.90%    91.59%    100.47%       
2010    88,192    81446    92.35%    91.03%    91.69%    100.72%       
2011    91,897    83981    91.39%    91.08%    91.93%    99.41%    

[saturated]

  I have seen a number of projections calling for a larger carry-out of corn in marketing year 2012/13. Using a slightly different set of numbers, I have built a supply-demand table with a different outcome in regard to carry out for crop year 2012/13. This table is fiction just as the other supply-demand tables.  It is only meant to present a alternative view. The story of the 2012/13 crop has yet to be revealed.
  Table 1 contains two different supply-demand ideas. Column A for crop year 2011/12 are numbers from the USDA. Column B for the same crop year are my supplied figures. There are two numbers in my column which differ from the USDA numbers. The harvested acres number material is contained in Table 3. I used the number 91%(of planted) which is closer to the 10/yr average then the USDA figure. With the number of problems the 2011/12 crop faced  I believe this is a closer representative of fact(actually I believe the harvested acre percent used should have somewhere between 86% to 89%).
  Carry-in is the second number in column B that differs from column A. There are a number of factors for this difference, price action at the end crop year 2010/11, and actual farmer accounts regarding the crop of 20009/10( the cool growing season, wet harvest). During August 2011 the corn market acted as if physical corn was in extremely short supply. This suggests the USDA supply-demand tables were off. Going back to the crop of 2009/10,  there are accounts of large amounts of rotten corn. In short, the supply numbers for usable corn were inflated that crop year. 500 million bushels used as a carry-in number(column B) is a guess at what was around in August 2011.
  The different numbers used for crop year 2011/12 change the ending stocks, 105.2 versus 801. I don't believe the yield or harvested acres numbers used by the USDA for crop year 2011/12. Recent news about China's purchases have left me wondering about the export number used by the USDA. However will only use minor changes in the table, before proceeding into the crop year of  2012/13.  
  In Table 1 crop year 2012/13, most of the numbers differ from column A to column B. Harvested acres are based on a 5/yr average of 92%. Yield is represented by the 5/yr average(national), 155/acre.  Table 2 shows how  averages for domestic usage and exports were derived. The link below the table is where the numbers were pulled from. Not all the numbers from column A in the 2012/13 crop year, are official USDA digits. Some of the number are guesses by other entities, based on info put out by the government.  
  The difference in the ending stocks between the two projections(2012/13) is 830.5 million bushels.

[Hobbyfarmer]

looks like you went to quite a bit of work, and you could be right. good thought piece