An interesting idea

[Blacksandfarmer]

Nox you may want to consider doing what a friend of mine thought of doing. He thought of taking all of his owned land and putting it in a land rent auction just to let the BTO's fight over it. He'd then rent it to the highest bidder while continuing to farm ground he leases at a reasonable price. The last land rent auction in this area fetched a pretty hefty price for some mediocre dirt.

[doublespy]

Hardnox, i am farming in Brazil, and I am phasing out of business.

All the land I have I´ve payed for myself, so don´t have the obligation to pass it on.

My kids are on the university, and none of them made manifest they want in agriculture or dairy.

So I am selling half of my land, sticking only to dairy.

With the new oil findings our currency will be overrated like forever. If one day soybeans comes down to 10$ won´t make

any profit at all.

Is that possible?

I think it is very likely. Seeing that 70% of all agricultural output goes to feed animals, me thinks it will create a lot of surpluss

if economic hard times force people the eat less meat. And while livestock people will go out of business first, don´t see why

we wouldn´t suffer also. And we all know we will keep planting even when prices are lower then breakeven, see we could perpetuate low margins for years.

I think it is a false illusion to say: "people will have to eat".  Yes, but not that much meat.

Still think that the farmer in the USA is in a better position today than we are. 

Good luck to all.

[hardnox604008]

Hi doublespy,

Haven't heard from you for a while, good to hear that you are well.

Of course what I wrote was half tongue in cheek- I will probably be OK regardless or if I'm not a lot of people won't be either. The greater point I was making was that this boom has made the very large crop farmer very strong from a competitive position.

I was reading an article recently that claimed that consumre debt is becoming a big problem in Brazil and might take the Real down to a more reasonable valuation. Wish I'd saved it, would have like to hear your comments about that.

Yes, I think that the debt problems from Europe to the US to Brazil to China mean that we have pulled demand forward for almost anything and that overall economic growth will be sluggish for a long time. But the US corn ehtanol program is still a huge draw on grain stocks- looks like we are at least another year from a significant stocks build.

Hope you check in again,

h

[jrsiajdranch]

Nox a friend of my families who has passed once told me that the most money he made in farming was when he sold out in 78.  He was either 59 or 60.  He took that money and put it into CD's and made a killing in the early 80's.  Sometimes getting out can be very profitable. DIed at 68 tho.

[jrsiajdranch]

Double  spy I sure would like to hear more about your dairy farm. The foreign dairies are always intriguing to me. What are getting per kilo of milk?  What  is your milk used for?  Fluid or cheese and butter?  Thanks for any info you want to share.

[timetippingpt]

Hardnox...send me a private email....would like to talk you about this opportunity. Thanks.

[hardnox604008]

I will, probably by the weekend.

It wasn't really my intention to be trolling for offers but I am somewhat serious as to the conundra that both sides of such a transaction face.

[doublespy]

Hi, sorry that it took me some time to answer.

Dairy was very good the last 3 years. 

I receive aproxx.  55 dollarcent per liter.

Cost would be 40 dollarcent. This comes because Brazil still is not exporting much milk(powder) and because Argentina and Uruguay had not much surpluss (could be changing now)>

However there is an 30% import tax for milkproducts. So this kind of kept the milkprice levitating above world prices.

My milk goes to our cooperation wich pools it, pasturizes and concentrates it to 40% solids. Then ships it 500 km to Sao Paulo to

Nestlé and Danone for ice(cream), yoghurt and whatever.