I have it (from a very good source) that a national farm management company(won't use their name 'cause he's a good friend)had their managers sell a portion of their clients crop last friday. Whoa, talk a bout bad timing. . For my part, I sold some old crop yesterday, after the widened the basis a nickel, for 6.73. A month ago i would have thought that a heckuva gift. I'm not an expert, but a buck higher on nc and jan. is a good starting point for me, maybe??Please send your grain marketing fees to to the Woden Poor Farmers Association. My home address....
Who was the guy who used to post here with the tag "strategy trumps opinion?"
Once again I'm struck by the fact that selling with puts or courage calls is awfully sound despite the fact that they seem awful expensive. On the other hand you're near assuring a profit compared to back in the day when you might have only spent .20 for option coverage but it felt like you were just compounding a loss.
If anyone thinks they're a great analyst because we're on the verge of a blowout drought, good luck with that thinking in future years. If they want to claim good strategy that's kept them from being overcommitted here then I'll buy.
I still have not figured out why people pay or believe someone that is a glorified fortune teller, and why these people claim to be risk managers. Anyone who puts all their chips on the table based on their predicition or someone elses prediction of future events isn't managing risk they are creating it, and the guy that didn't sell anything today betting on this weather wasn't any better just luckiier.
Re: I want to propose a toast ...
When someone advises you to take $6.50 for corn or $12 for beans he is hardly suggesting that you take pennies.
MY philosophy has changed some what In that you should take good profits when they offer it to you. don't know that corn is going to $8 do you? I don't know that beans are going to $20 do you?
I have done far better by taking good profits when they are offered than waiting for that pie in the sky bid that may never materialize. I pay zero in interest on operating capital and usually have money in the bank. I don't raise a crop to keep it. I raise it for the income it will produce.
I think you folks have speculation confused with marketing and anyone engaged in the latter is somehow wrong or stupid.
I don't care if you or MT want to hold your grain forever and ever. But I refuse to consider it good marketing. But then that is just my opinion.
$6.50 corn isn`t "pennies", I don`t know about Humbolt Coops, but north of you $5 new crop was rare as hens teeth. It was rattling around $4.50 to $4.90 and advisors were all saying "scale up sales on a 10¢ bounce!" Well, after 30 times of saying "sell on a 10¢ bounce" I`d think you`d have hit you APH somewhere around the eleventeenth "bounce". And for some that haven`t done the correct rain dance, they are effectively 150% sold at a average price of $4.75....Gee thanks advisors, what more excellent advice do you have for me? My barefoot country boy advice is this "Do not ever ever sell below your crop insurance guarantee" the risk ain`t worth the possible reward. As late as a couple weeks ago there were advisors and jokers in chat rooms telling you to make sales at still maybe 80¢ below your insurance guarantee. Well, shoot the clown in my example at the to post just yesterday said to make sales on a "20¢ bounce". If I haven`t listened to him all spring, why the heck should I start now? Had I listened to him I`d be 100% sold now. Although he looks a bit more disheveled , he still has the cajones to look into the camera like he was right all along. He doesn`t give a crap if he got someone 150% sold, he doesn`t have to come up with the short bushels in the fall.
Re: No Don,
Do you have crop insurance Don? It`s a tool in our toolbox and if you`d rather use your head to pound nails good for you, as for me I`ll use the hammer out of the toolbox.