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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Analysts

Names won`t be given to protect the guilty.  One outfit I watch, their opening and closing comments all spring they advised selling "10¢ rallies" to the point that you`d have been sold to your APH a couple weeks ago.  This morning he quoted someone in his office that he thought was cute "Well, they`re going to raise less of what no one wants.", he went on to say "sell a 20¢ rally". This afternoon at the close he says "carefull of what you wish for...demand destruction!!!".  Now I`m not one that swears easily, but it`s all that I can do without speaking my mind here...I`ll just say this guy needs a size 12 boot planted in his butt, because some farmers did listen to him and are now over sold and he is telling those that didn`t follow him over a cliff that, "This time I`m right...sell a 20¢ rally!".  Another clown preached that ElNino would guarantee a bumper crop this year and "we`ve never had 3 years below trend"  ..I kid you not now he`s saying "2013 will be a bumper crop because we`ve never had 4 YEARS BELOW TREND!" Smiley LOL Smiley LOL  I gotta laugh or I`d cuss and get kicked off here, but are these idiots for real?   It`s not just this free advice that I`ve been gleaning, I`ve paid for stupid advice that thankfully I didn`t follow as well.  The guy that sits on a boat in Boca Raton and gives marketing advice, once said his "sell signal" advised making "catch up sales" in September in the face of an obviously challenged crop.  When they called for a renewal "to beat the price increase" I was polite but I figured they needed to hear what I thought of their "sell signals" ...oh yeah they got mad at me.  The USDA is only an enabler to these clowns providing cover for their goof ups, just like giving rot-gut liquor to an alcoholic.

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24 Replies
Farmerjoe79
Senior Contributor

Re: Analysts

One thing those guys act like there never wrong. I know of a few guys that did that were they would sell 10% every 10 cents up, I bet they are regreting those sales now.
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docharing
Veteran Contributor

Re: Analysts

Preach it! I agree 100%.

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ne 50
Veteran Contributor

Re: Analysts

so for every 1.00 up you gain 50 cents from the starting point...

 

ie.  first sale at 5.00 sell 10 percent every dime higher .. last sale at 6.00 for a 5.50 average... not bad if the price drops back but remember it has to drop 50 cents or more to make you 'feel better'   but as you know everyone waits until it goes up 1.00 and sells it all at the high ... right?

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Slim123
Senior Contributor

Re: Analysts

We haven't heard much from our resident advisor much lately, the one that said "nobody wants corn". I think the BULL freight- trained over him and then turn around and gored him in his kiester. No one knows what the markets will be in future, we producers have to evaluate the the situation and decide for ourselves . We can't blame others for our decisions.  He was so adamant that MT was out in left field. MT had seized the situation for what it was and what could happen if certain events would happen. 

 

MT thanks for your posting of the facts the way you saw them, some of us used this information in our own analysts.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Analysts

History preachers-----------------

 

They preach history that was built on surplus years.   The usda PIC years produced this------sell in spring, collect the harvest PIC payment on the big crop, poor price harvest and net $3+ on $2.40 corn.-----------just one of the common practices of the "surplus" years.  

History and pundits are built on surplus years.   We are having to learn how to market in short crop years---------something we thought (and may still think) was rare.   I don't know------------All I know is that  following someone with nothing at risk, except his pride, can hurt for a long time in a marketing sense.

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DismalScience
Veteran Contributor

Re: Analysts

Geez VrBuck told you to sell in August MT said hold. The only person on this site that realizes buck was right is krafty
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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

I want to propose a toast ...

...to Mizzou Tiger and all his "dots" and for that matter all you bulls out there that kept us all level headed with "hammer marketing".  The farmer has alot of sharks that try and part him from his grain these days.  You bulls know all the technical reasons why to be bullish, I`m not that smart, I just had a feeling that the bad news bears were up to mischief.  I just want to say, maybe I was a little tough on analysts.  A person like me probably doesn`t get all that much out of them.  A typical analyst is dealing with clients that have a break even north of $4, their banker says "if you can lock in a quarter or 50¢ profit, by God you take it!  You hear me?"  So, that`s what the analyst does, chases pennies and all spring there were those opportunities to lock in a profit.  This is why Gurus had their clients finished with marketing "the last week of May".    The problem comes when that last 10% is sold and parts of the corn belt is extremely dry.  The Guru has the 1 quarter/bu profit locked in  trouble is the client might be oversold.  So the Guru grasps at straws, praying that a wide spread rain bails them out and they get the 15 billion bu crop that they predicted. Instead of admitting a boo-boo, they double down and for a month live in denial and give out poor advice.  It`s kind of like someone stuck in a mud hole spinning their wheels, gunning the engine only gets them in deeper.  If they would put their ego aside and say "yeah, I`m stuck" and get a chain, maybe they wouldn`t make their problem worse.  This year especially this Gurus were doing a "end zone dance"  on their own 20 yard line.  That was in May and I was thinking "you buffoons got alot got of growing season before you can celebrate any touchdowns" .    It just really erked me how they expressed "how stupid the bulls are".  Anyway I do hope that it rains, because those with pineapple corn that is no fun and I hope it turns out good for you.  And long live the Hammer!!

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Farmerjoe79
Senior Contributor

Re: Analysts

Buck sold way before last august so if you believe he had corn left at that time you are about as blind as that squirrel I have in my back yard looking for walnuts.
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Farmerjoe79
Senior Contributor

Re: Analysts

I forgot about that hammer marketing. Lol. I bet he wish he never owned a hammer.lol
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