And so it begins.....

[kraft-t]

In the first place I am not a bear. I Do know math though and I know that we have sold lots of beans below $11 and a lot of corn below $5. I would just [refer that a lot of young folks didn't miss the boat because they are waiting for the ship to come in.

Just take your corn crop @ $5.5 and multiply it times your bushels produced and calculate your gross proceeds. Then decide how much of that you wish to risk to get another dollar a bushel.

I'm not screaming "Fire!"  I'm saying be rational and ignore those filled with irrational exuberance. Supply demand mcan change rather quickly if the financial markets take a tumble. Even John Corzine & co could dump the market for a few days. What would a euro collapse do to our markets?

[Palouser]

I do not agree that supply and demand can change overnight. That is an erroneous position in my opinion. Price might change overnight.  It also might reverse itself every week - which would be most likely - maybe with little net effect over time.

Everyone needs to market based on their own situation in mind and that can result in radically different approaches to the market under exactly the same outside conditions. All other things being equall I've always had trouble with selling based on COP on your farm. It still requires choices taking into consideration the opportunity to make as sufficient profit, or more profit that will not only cover obligations but, also shift the risk load to a less important issue overall.  After considering the level of risk I carry, and allowing for it, I am more free to use information, experience and my judgment to search or WAIT for better opportunities for sales.

At this point in my life I can definitely do more cherry picking in the market and wait for long term trends to come to fruition, though nothing is guaranteed - for anyone.

I would say basing a marketing plan on the chances of the Euro imploding is definitely speculation. Assuming supply and demand will change based on that scenario is probably just plain wrong.

[coup1479172]

Kraft,

Those having a poverty mentality about grain values, for the last 5 years have had an expensive education. This is a different animal than anything that  we have experienced in the past.

 A demand monster has been created with an appetite that can't seem to be quenched, plus a monopoly $ printing frenzy. These two things have created a situation, that will not allow ultra cheap prices for an extended period of time.

Building more bins would be a wise investment IMO.

[kraft-t]

Demand can change in a hurry if the buyers leave the market.

You can do what ever you wish to do because you can afford to be wrong. Some folks cannot afford to be wrong and need to take an opportunity when it avails itself.

[Palouser]

Buyers of physical ????? Not likely. This is a global market with global needs and demand seldom slackens in a significant way.

I will say my operation has narrower margins than most as i rent everything and I'm a relatively small operator. Having a feel for markets has been my major advantage.

Having said all this, I'm not particularly bullish for wheat at the moment and am still in a neutral position regarding sales, long, and have been out since early August.

[425Cat]

Not so awful long ago 1.80 corn and 5.50 beans. Man those times were tough. Almost quit.

[425Cat]

Yes demand should not change in a significant way quickly , however supply can, one of these years we could produce a monster.

[Palouser]

Yes, we could produce a monster - or a disaster. One can't use the odds on extremes in any given year. In that sense one can't devise a market strategy until the conditions begin to express themselves one way or another. On the other hand, the global trend on supply/demand has been one of demand increasing every year and production just keeping pace - or not -generally speaking. Keeping pace isn't going to break the bank IMO. One short year could cause mayhem. I don't see technological breakthroughs that can consistently cause over production on a continuous basis, yet. But I have no hope we can counteract severely unfavorable weather anytime soon.

Globally there is an averaging out of conditions in most years. But if we are stretching to get acres to meet demand I think weather issues become ever more critical.

[roarintiger1]

I think that the USDA is trying very hard to stay away from the monster AND the disaster by adjusting the numbers.....not in a bad way, but just to keep our food as cheap as they can.    It is too bad though, that the traders put so much stock in what those reports say.  Millions of dollars have been made or lost the day of those reports........and this next report is gonna be a humdinger.

[coup1479172]

Doubt if  many grain end users  have enough inventory  bought ahead, to stay out of the market for an extended period of time.  Demand for grain is not shrinking it is growing, no matter what the smoke blowers would lead one to believe. 

As far as having deep enough pockets to ride out the ruff spots, anybody that hasn't got there pockets deepened , in the last 5 years is probably doomed to failure.

1000 acres corn @ 150 bu x $1 per bu extra  selling price on  06 - 11 crop = a $900,000 bonus.... $2 more bu = $1.6 million extra. Hasn't been that hard to ave $6 corn, in that time frame, if a person didn't hold on to a poverty mentality about the value of corn. Those that haven't squandered the windfall should be able to outlast an enduser's withdrawl from the market