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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

And the Asian consensus of Phase One.

I spent a good deal of time reading the whole of the agricultural portion of Phase One. 

While it is true the increases in agricultural purchases is clearly spelled out in section 6.2 Trade opportunities, namely:   (b) For the category of agricultural goods identified in Annex 6.1, no less than $12.5 billion above the corresponding 2017 baseline amount is purchased and imported into China from the United States in calendar year 2020, and no less than $19.5 billion above the corresponding 2017 baseline amount is purchased and imported into China from the United States in calendar year 2021.  And for reference, the 2017 number was $23.8 billion total and 1.332 billion bushels of soybeans valued at $14.57 billion.  

There is this caveat: 5. The Parties acknowledge that purchases will be made at market prices based on commercial considerations and that market conditions, particularly in the case of agricultural goods, may dictate the timing of purchases within any given year.

  The thing is, in order to get the $12.5 billion increase in 2020, they almost certainly will need to increase imports of soybeans and I can't imagine them waiting until next Oct. to get started. 

  The thing is if China was serious about these import quantities,  it should be reflected in the futures price but it's clearly not.

  So it's hard to know what to make of this deal or how serious the Chinese actually are.

There is this opinion article in the SCMP:https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3046307/will-china-stick-phase-one-trade-deal-depends-w... that I think nicely summarizes the Chinese position.

  In short, the Chinese will stick to the deal if it suits their purposes.

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7 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: And the Asian consensus of Phase One.

Wouldn’t that be true for both?

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: And the Asian consensus of Phase One.

If Phase One is some sort of "Me chinese, me play joke, me go pee pee in your Coke" ...well, what good does that do them?   The tariffs will go on with a vengeance, kind of like the guy that stiffed RJG on the hay deal, RJG won`t sell him anymore hay.

And if the Chinese are untiring super studs, why even go to the negotiating table in the first place?   If they don`t need the $400 billion annual trade surplus with us, don`t waste time negotiating, just tell us to "pound sand" and if we want to go back to the way it was, with a penalty for thinking we could stand up for ourselves they`ll be waiting. 

No, they about have to live up to the agreement or lose credibility.  It is perhaps disheartening that as soon as the deal was inked that an immediate order of 1 billion bushel of beans didn`t quickly follow.   But let`s at least give them a chance to live up to the agreement.

freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: And the Asian consensus of Phase One.

Who would pull the trigger on a multi-billion-dollar purchase on the eve of that Congressional Circus currently taking place?

I would wait until the dust of Congressional insanity clears, although that may take a very long time "because we Democrats will impeach President Trump F-O-R-E-V-E-R!!"

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: And the Asian consensus of Phase One.

Keep  in  mind  our  dealings  in  Asia  after  W W II,   have  limited  results ,  other  than  countless  Billion$  of  military spending  - - -   

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: And the Asian consensus of Phase One.

289 I agree....... Lets keep in mind there is really no wealth in china and most of asia.  Thanks for the reminder, so what do they spend for our farm products if we don't first hire them for cash to do our work.  Outnumbering the world in population is the wealth of china (or lack of wealth).  

freedom,........ Trump is just the diversion, a wise and interesting one, but not the democrat problem.  Voters who outnumber them are their problem.... the population of their deminished base.  Their second problem is the profits from technology and the funds that manipulate commodity markets is their sourse of funding.  

IMO Trump is not only going after our biggest economic problem(which is vital to the US), in balance of trade.  He is threatening the sourse of funding for the elite democrats in the US who pocket from their stock ownership in all things manufactured in China.  The wealth that is shared with congressmen through lobby is payment to protect the tech industry investors...... the group that keeps the democrat party alive financially (while they cheat their country out of taxes they would owe if their business was conducted in this country), and keeps our news industry in pocket and alive with their direction and support.  IMO those trust fund heirs are fighting for their lives right now and will "attempt" to impeach Trump till their dying breath because he represents the will of the people to seperate from Politically managed control.  The obvious outcome of a "deplorable" revolt.  Leadership that is not controled by a political machine is a far cry from the continuing corruption of political organizations.

The US has "shared the wealth" since WW2 big time..... but that charity to maintain peace in the world has been politically corrupted in very embarrassing ways.  (not the least of which is being made public in this political fight...)

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: And the Asian consensus of Phase One.

China is basically a "smart hitler" they have the same world domination and totalitarian goals but rather buying Pearl Harbor instead of bombing it (ally Japan) and buying the Russian front instead of sending troops there.  Too many on here are worried about "$1.25 basis in North Dakota"  and "Trump reneging on the 3rd MFP payment"...shame on them for their shortsightedness.  How do you say "basis in North Dakota" in Mandarin?

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: And the Asian consensus of Phase One.

BA,  the basis issue is just one of the "US market distortions" of this world trade move and federal intervention in all things economic.  The unbridled monopoly system congress has favored(resulting in a richer and richer pool of Lobbying and PAC organizations ), is a bad climate for agriculture to survive in.  All things rural are in trouble.... Parts by UPS or Amazon, is the future thanks to our wise voters.

Competition has been driven out by 40 years of democratic rule in congress.  Most recent and obvious is the drug store destruction of federal mandates for health care.  Where congress chose 4 or 5 drug supply chains over all locally owned small businesses.  Regulations do that to every segment of the economy.  Congress knows that only a few will be able to comply and survive.  And the federal employees below congress do not want to have to regulate thousands of businesses nation wide..... 4-5 nationals is a lot easier and publicly profitable.    We have intentionally switched over to the one world format favoring multinational conglomerates over small business.  

Congress (if it survives with democrat rule) will continue this route and food production will go the same route.  Smoke screens like "organic" "farm to market" will continue to try to look like alternatives -- but they are just diversions while the investors position themselves to be part of the international future of farming.... Even US raised and grown....... is loosing its glamour...... Loyalties to causes are more important than local or national loyalties..... Signs of the times.