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Senior Contributor

And the beat goes on .......

Dow crashing, European turmoil, Oil spills and North Korean military aggressiveness.

 

That just about does it.

 

More dollar strength killing those that still cling to the inflation trade. Oil plummeting killing those who want to be long energy. Wait, gold is the safe haven so it should be higher. Not. It's slightly lower this morning. What do we do now? What is the trade of the day? Maybe we should find a way to get long fresh water.

 

The only prudent answer is to continue with a well diversified portfolio. It has been mathematically proven that the market over time is random and that the only way to really come out ahead is to try not to pick 'em.

 

So, in times like these, continue with the pundits calling for the end of the world, make sure your portfolio is diversified and have a nice summer. Worry about those things that you can control and accept those things that you cannot.

 

 

 

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7 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: And the beat goes on .......

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Scott,

 

Are you saying all of the cows got out of the barn overnight. Now they are scattered across the neighbors pasture and they won't even come home for a bucket of corn? And you don't have any horses to round them up. And the pickup and four-wheeler will scare them, so you can't use those. What do you do?

 

Maybe you can call the cow whisperer? For the scenario you laid out above, is there a market whisperer for traders? Which brings me to another question. How's that 'sell in May and go away' theory looking this year?

 

Just curious.

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: And the beat goes on .......

Mike,

 

I feel that if the fundamentals were really what we were trading on that the "sell in May theory" would hold true. The problem is that the amount of capital that is in the market, all markets, sometimes takes away the fundamental trade and traders. You may have the right position on but you cannot stomach the capital inflows and outflows that occur while you have it on. It's like playing poker with the richest guy on the block. He continually bluffs you out of a winning hand only because he's got more money.

 

The weather is undeniably good, and we have gotten off to a great start. I think that Dec corn goes off the board below $3.25 but it easily could trade $4.25 before that happens. So, respect the range and make plays at the outer edges of recent moves.

 

Scott 

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Senior Advisor

Re: And the beat goes on .......

I agree, Scott, you not only have to be right on the direction but also on the timing.  I've never worried a lot about the direction although I'm sure not always right, but timing drives me nuts.

I imagine this is why stock advisor tell you to not worry about timing on an investment program, but for a farmer selling in the present, timing can't be ignored.

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Contributor

Re: And the beat goes on .......

I think you better take a look at Gold again!  It is up a little bit now.  And compare it to 5 years ago when we have had one huge deflationary scare in 2008/2009,  and it has made new highs again since.  I really think alot of people that post here, are too much influenced by the talking heads, who in turn are influenced by the big banks.  Think for yourselves people!!!!!!! Gold is on a terror the last 10 years!!!!!!!!!!!  Inflation is right at the corner after every deflationary scare!!!!!!

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Veteran Contributor

Re: And the beat goes on .......

"Inflation is right at the corner after every deflationary scare!!!!!!"

 

isn't that the truth! why do you reckon so many are dis-missing the inflationary shadow upon the world's economy today? just a matter tof time, and timing hard to predict with so many finger's on the buttons these days.

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Contributor

Re: And the beat goes on .......

Fact, we have had big inflation the past 10 years as measured in gold and the dollar!!

I don't know why it is so hard to understand!

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Senior Contributor

Re: And the beat goes on .......

according to shadow stats.com inflation has been averageing 10%  since 2000.  figured the way it used to done prior to bush one. d7

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