Another choppy day on the tundra

[AlKluis]

The market is trying to figure out when price rationing is going to start. I think we need to watch the weekly ethanol crush numbers and when ethanol starts to slow down it can signal a top in the corn market. I had one farmer I talked with in Western Illinois yesterday who indicated that even though his winter wheat is looking good, he was going to tear it up and grow more corn. He said he could not afford to grow wheat and only gross $800 per acre, when a normal corn yield would bring in $1,200. IT looks like we could get 92 million acres + with this rally during the month of Feb... Month to date average for crop insurance is at $6.01 and $13.74. WOW.  It was -17 the last two nights and now the forecast is for 35 by Saturday- I hope they are right.

[sonoma72]

my question is, that is the extra gross per acre, an extra 400.  So considering all the new inputs to plant the corn, what actually is the projected net increase in profit.  And i would suppose that there is some "risk" involved in tearing up an established crop vs. planting into perhaps too wet or dry of conditions, or getting your wheat out before a drought really sets in.    

[Red Steele]

so you are saying that there is 200 bushel plus capable corn land currently planted to wheat? I would have to see that to believe it.  I would want to see the economics of tearing up most wheat fields to grow corn, with the current input cost, too.

I am sure some damaged fields might go to corn, but the idea that any prime corn fields are currently in wheat is one I would want to see more info on.

or are we trying to talk the market down for corn?

[Canuck_2]

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@sonoma72 wrote:

my question is, that is the extra gross per acre, an extra 400.  So considering all the new inputs to plant the corn, what actually is the projected net increase in profit.  And i would suppose that there is some "risk" involved in tearing up an established crop vs. planting into perhaps too wet or dry of conditions, or getting your wheat out before a drought really sets in.    

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I know what you are saying sonoma and I agree but the person making those remarks is a 'real' farmer. You know the one who likes to haul big loads of wet corn over the scale and then talk about how big his yield was in wet tonnes.

Never looks at the bottom line. That is what bankers and accountants are for.

[sonoma72]

well, on highly productive ground...  lets say 34,000 pop. corn.  so you get 2.35 acres per bag.  wanna plant good seed, so @250-275 per bag, so that is lets say 110 per acre.  then lets see fertilizer is what these days, lets say 240 lbs of N at .55 lb.  lets just forget all the other nutrients.  so now we are at 242 per acre just for these two.  Throw in a bunch of phos, etc., herbicide, fuel, labor, insurance. etc, and I don't think it is such a no brainer,  of course i am no wheat farmer either.  I wonder how that does work on insurance, if you already paid a wheat insurance premium and you tear it up?  When it is all said and done I think i'd rather go golfing, hee hee.

[oncearound]

if the wheat was fertilized last fall? there may be less of a need of higher priced spring N, P & K......no? wouldn't there be a good portion of any applied fertilizer or N still available now?  if you killed the wheat off with a herb like glyphosate or paraquat...etc before it breaks dormancy, that would be just like a normal burndown program....no? with a small grain already established, one would think the ground would be level and pretty clean.......so perhaps after a burndown on the wheat he could plant right into the stale seedbed with no spring tillage required?

so he would be out his cost of wheat seed and maybe a chemical possibly?

i can see that particular farmer's logic quite clearly.

[Red Steele]

first, bad wheat acres go to soybeans.  Then other acres that would have been soybean acres go corn on corn in other areas of the country. If the market senses this, soybean prices will go down. 

Unless some people actually have been planting wheat on 200 bushel corn ground, which I find very hard to believe.

 New crop corn should be the barometer ...if the market feels a lot of acres are shifting to corn, the new crop bids will retreat.

[muddymiller]

Even if the wheat was fertilized last fall, the fertilizer has to be charged to something...the corn crop. Plus the cost of planting wheat and killing it. Is this farmer far enough south to double crop beans?

[oncearound]

sure but last fall's fert price was better than now, or 1,2,3,4 montyhs ago now. he said the farmer was in W IL, so double crop beans would be skimpy at best. the prep for wheat planting could be considered the same as fall tillage, and killing the wheat the same as a typical spring burn down in front of corn. again, net loss is wheat seed and maybe a chemical if applied to the wheat?

July wheat basis???  have any of you concerned with this proposed practice checked on that element of this equation? 

[nwobcw]

   I don't blame him for doing it.  I am in 180 bushel corn and 50 bushel bean ground although last year beans avraged closer to 60.  Wheat yields haven't risen in over 30 years.  The elevator seed guy says this is because all wheat research has went into disease resistance not yield improvements.  We've never had any wheat diseases around here.  This is my second year of no wheat.  With all the fertilizer required for wheat compared to just throwing a little potash down for beans, wheat just isn't worth it.  Normally I would plant wheat to have ground to see hay into in August.  But I'm even thinking of planting a real early maturing soybean the next time I need to plant a a new hayfield.  It was nice having the wheat stubble field to spread manure in during the summer slow time so it does make extra fall work to spread it after taking beans off.  But I remember how long it used to take combining with a 10 foot head too.