Reply
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,312
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Answer this question please

What I'm taking from this research ...we perhaps
Should ""get when the getting's good".
IF ..this is applied, I could see commodity prices
Go down....for many many moons the ""starving
World"" card has been played. I'm not saying
There are not hungry in the world... I'm sure
Within 10 miles of me there is, and across the
World....but how do you get to a price point where
They can afford to purchase, and we can afford
To produce and stay in business.
There is no reason for prices to go up, and market
Forces will see it will not....so what do we do
With 30% more ????
Nothing
The agriculture industrial system will make sure
It will go...
More grain...more to handle, and the more bu we
Handle, more we make.
Farmers will ""shoot the moon"" with even thinner
Margins...they will fertilizer and spray to get
Maximum profit.
Equipment... tight margins call for bigger and
Better equipment.

But what happens to asset value....the only thing
Keeping us afloat is land values have not slipped

In this state, life will become interesting at the
Capital...land tax value is on ""production value"
What happens when that shrinks 50% ??

So start to figure out how to exit without helping
Build a silly wall.

We are at the bottom of the ladder....I have finnaly
Learned after all these years to put on my safety
Goggles before looking up
Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,920
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Answer this question please

Exit what?

Politics world wide starves more to death than lack of food ever will. Been true for over a century. True every day in Zimbabwe & South Sudan.
Look around. Change is happening. The bottom of the corn market was 2017?
How do you most quickly change losses to profits? Change what we’re doing, not wait on futures prices to change. Kansas has been leaving the wheat market for over 5 years now along with milo and corn. Driving around this fall the south half of Ks has a large % of cotton acres that looked very productive. In the old wheat belt the soybean acres keep growing.
“Farmers change markets” or if they wait too long expecting others(including Congress) to do it, “markets change farmers”.

Land prices are down on our side of Ks. The ones that don’t end up “no sales”. Water pumping is down(less corn bushels). Regardless of price.
Cash flows say change, its time to be doing it. Corn can be priced for fall 2019 at 4.28. Beans are 9.59 . time to start pricing instead of waiting for lower harvest price risk?
Is it time to stop planting seed that costs north of $100 per acre. Maybe feed or silage with a feeding program? Or reestablishing some grass?
Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,224
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: Answer this question please

Hey sw don't leave out the obvious, organic. A number of really smart peers in

Indiana/Ohio have brought beef back in to the program. Rotational grazing the

non-crop year to build N for the year of corn, the good ones doing a 7 year

rotation I think, with hay/wheat/covers/beans/covers that are grazed for a

year. then corn. It is very doable (but obviously a lot of work), and their cost

and yields are fantastic. 220 bu organic corn and selling grass fed organic

beef for a huge price. 

 

They are working very smart, working hard, but working very smart.

 

Just saying it is possible, just hard.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,312
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Answer this question please

I believe if the "next step" would be such an
Advance as above...it would be a huge game
Changer. As I said, what would a 30% increase
In supply do to the S & D charts ?
I don't think over production is good for price
For farmers.
What it could do is put those dreaded "fringe" acres
Back into grass
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,561
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
0

Re: Answer this question please

Tell me the demand and I'll make a wild guess.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,920
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Answer this question please

I'll answer your original question but you won't like it ..... when there is a shut down in usda market interference I can see the futures markets are still working ... fancy that...... and i can think without interference from propaganda..

Try this....

 

30 % increase in supply ----- can't happen without demand.... So a 30% increase in production means higher prices and more profits.  

Corn acres planted peaked 6 years ago...... 2012 was peak acres and we are down 9% since then.  --(if you believe the usda numbers)  ....and if so  then the last 10 years only show a 5% increase in bushels if you cherry pick the years like usda does.

Increases we have seen in production are actually explained by demand........ and demand alone....fed by drought and the new ethanol oxygenate in our fuel tanks... Even bean volume and acres are a function of demand from China .

 

Ask the question "why do we see increased trend in production of corn or soybeans and every PR firm in the country will scream "our product did that" -- from genetic science to satalite guidance, better equipment new cell phones,  technology of all type -- Monsanto swore before congress that biotech would increase production..... but truth was congress increased production by promoting ethanol--a new market in both energy and feed ingredients that became well liked-----.  otherwise you would be right ---all that technology would have driven down prices...for corn and beans----but your wrong ... because lower prices would have driven down acres and production in spite of technology.....

That is what the market function is........ if we stop manipulating it to appease advertisers and campaign contributors.

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,920
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Answer this question please

Time there is a good article in the SF website about a farm in North Carolina that has done better than the shaky "organic" label.  They have established a direct market to the consumer that accomplishes what the organic promoters preach, without a fad label ... and I think it exemplifies what the consumer really wants........ To reconnect and find faith in the source of its food.  No better way that to stick your personal name on the bag and control what the consumer gets.

 

It is not the "instant" easy answer that producers crave, but it touches on the issues that create distrust between producers and consumers.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 619
Registered: ‎08-31-2012
0

Re: Answer this question please

You're right sw - I would put more faith in that name on the label than "Jimmy Dean".

Jimmy passed on nearly 9 years ago but he's still doing commercials for that brand.

Love George Hamilton as the "crispy" Colonel tho.Smiley Happy

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,920
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Answer this question please

I gotta ask — does the consumer really want another action committee or expensive celebrity telling them what to do? Or just confidence in their food supply being honestly presented and safe?
If we’re not confident in what we eat, what is usda’s real responsibility? If there is a safety issue with inspected or certified production, ....who is actually responsible and Never accepts responsibility? Perishable means risk. Yet usda findings are hopeful guesses that destroy producers and protect the inspection process claim of spotless food in an unwashed world.
Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,920
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Answer this question please

Most young people I see preparing food for their own consumption are taking personal risks in bacteria control. Ya gotta avoid the fresh and raw to not go with an three day issue.