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Senior Advisor

Any.......

bears thinking about hibernating............

 

EDIT:  interesting longer term forecast for rest of NA winter...........appears to be above average temps and below average rainfall..........wonder how many fall AA acres get some rescue N before its all said and done.............

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14 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Any.......

MT-

Sure is interesting how the turns have tabled.  Smiley Happy

 

Seemed like all the news was bearish until recently.  Now people are talking SA weather issues,  people are eyeing bullish charts, people are remembering how tight corn will be.

 

Thanks for all the work you do.

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Highlighted
Contributor

Oil prices

I traveled through North Dakota a couple of weeks ago. All I can say is WOW!  If corn prices are tied at least some what to oil prices, take a trip and see all the oil wells being drilled in North Dakota. However be patient, as it is like driving in L.A. when someone spots KIm Kardashian with her top off. I have never seen anything like it.  As soon as they all get online, oil prices will come down, IMHO. Corn prices....well we will see,

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Any.......

Mizzou thanks for the export charts you post. According to your charts soybeans are only at 60% of the export pace of last year? You also show strong export demand for corn.... around 90% of last years pace. If true, a guy might look to sell or forward contract some 2012 soybeans on this rally and hold off a bit on corn? I made my first sale for 2012 new crop beans at a price of $11.11 at the local elevator last Thursday. My goal for the rest is $12 or around that price for beans. Corn Im still a little more bullish on. I think nc 2012 corn will run up to $6 in the next couple months. I believe USDA changes its feed numbers in the next report.....,. We do seem to be in a much different weather pattern lately.

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Senior Advisor

While it maybe.......

hard to truely know if we are in front of or behind peak oil..........one thing is certain, at current new capacity coming online is doing nothing more than keeping pace with demand and/or replacing lost capacities in older wells in older fields........

 

IMO one thing to keep in mind with the deep water, tar sands, oil shale, or brownfield potash deposits is this.........those are next level technologies that require a higher commodity price to sustain the operation because of additional cost, risk, and technologies...........

 

if you think oil is going back to $30/barrel or potash is going back to $100/ton............you must also believe we are on the brink of a major global collapse, because thats what its going to take, being swatted back to the stone age if you will............

 

i have said it before, I will echo it again.........the next 100 years will likely be a global natural resource/commodity war...........we are likely entering into a period of time where a balance in earth's sustainable capacity will be found..........we will likely overshoot to the high side first.........

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Senior Advisor

The soya thing will come full circle..........

I think a lot of export sales have been on hold with the idea SA was going to have this huge crop...........also keep in mind sales last year were hot and heavy out of the gate.........this year has been steady..........the gap will close as we get further into the year.........and it will close real real quick as buyers realize it might be time to lock in needs instead of waiting given the fundamentals............

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Oil prices

New lows in corn futures postponed for the forseeable future.....about the only thing that will take us to new lows in next 30 days is some kind of EU implosion-----but even that event is being talked to death, and like many commodity markets, they eventually get worn out and the reaction is less than expected.....

 

It should be noted that AU is bringing in a monster wheat crop, and better quality than expected a few weeks ago.....

 

The info in this link would imply that 26 MMT has been delivered to grain facilities...out of a 28.3 MMT crop estimate....may still be too low??

 

http://marketforum.com/?id=1171492

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Honored Advisor

Re: Oil prices

FWIW,  It appears that all bears are not hibernating yet...........Just like farmers who sell in the hope and panic stage,  it would appear that the end users are going to be buying in the hope and panic stages as well.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Oil prices

Not following your logic......we're 40 cents off the recent bottom......and 1.60 from the 8/31 highs in March corn....

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Honored Advisor

Re: Oil prices

I guess my logic would be that there are probably some that have not covered their needs fully and may have been thinking that they would wait and buy when corn got back to the lows.  They may be chasing the market higher now.

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