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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Anyone looking at the markets today?

Are you going to sell this rally, or hold out for a while yet?

I'm sure the market advisors are saying to sell,sell,sell.  

What is fueling this rally?   

Harvest delays?

Thoughts of lower corn yields nationwide?

Bogus carryover numbers?

More export business than expected?

All of the above?

7 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Anyone looking at the markets today?

Yes I sold corn and bought feeder cattle both this morning.   Profit taking nothing more

 

Of those you mention I'd say .......

1.   more export business than expected.    the announcements Friday were better than most realized.  and with commodities that may be hard to move this time of year.

2.   thoughts of lower harvest numbers nationwide...... production numbers are down and don't come up when it's all nearly over...... and where it is not over.... it's wet.--  wet where wet takes yields down.

-----------------------------

Harvest delays are not a factor in regions where basis is going up.   irrelevant

usda bogus .......... irrelevant to the market.    Like a political platform............. irrelevant to reality

 

 

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Anyone looking at the markets today?

Beans are almost exactly  25% higher than when everybody was tripping over each other trying to grab $10 beans just a year ago.

Corn is 37.5% more better than HARVEST last year.

Might be a time to forget about last spring's price spike?

I'm starting to be as nervous as a ***** in church about the world economy as a whole.

Not comfortable about defered payment options, no recourse no guarantees just a non secured promise to pay.

Only about so much tax I want to pay in gross $ terms.

Quite a few bu being "salted away"  for future needs in this area.

Weather is not at all conducive for bean harvest and corn has picked up a few pts of moisture too.

Really not late for harvest yet. If it was thanksgiving week end that would be different.

Local train loader got their two train load bean pile wet. 4.33" at my place last week.

They also got two uncovered half made piles of corn very damp too. 

Might be issues shortly???

Might have been better stored in the field?

Lots of crops to be harvested here yet.

I'm gonna sit up here in the balcony and watch the show...

Pass the popcorn and hand me another beer.

roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Anyone looking at the markets today?

It’s wet here too. 7+ inches of rain in October. Maybe can get back in the fields Thursday or Friday.

But, the local ethanol plant has not been improving their basis………yet. However that may be coming soon. 

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Anyone looking at the markets today?

The elevators that pile outside have very small piles, I don`t know if the yield is actually there.  I sort of blame social media skewing yield perception, videos of guys going a half round of "297" "295" on the yield monitor later confessing the field yield was 230.   Poor guys with gravity wagons try to keep up with saying "I filled the 300 bushel wagon on one round and that`s an acre!!!"  ....ahh, no you didn`t, first of all your "round" was 1.25 acres and the "filled wagon" was 20% corn.   We need to have the "WDJWTCFY yield" and that stands for "what does Jodi write the check for yield"    🙂

Kind of funny a couple years ago, I`d write about I want "10-4" prices  $10 beans and $4 corn, now we`d go broke with those prices.   Actually having to sell $4 corn in this environment would break you sooner than having to have sold $3.25 corn a couple years ago.

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Anyone looking at the markets today?

Roarin,

What is your take on the market?

Do you have a marketing scheme?

0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Anyone looking at the markets today?

Increases in corn production in Brazil are most likely going to be processed and used internally.

Now we just we just need to get them on board with refining soy oil into diesel by way of a refinery (cracking).

https://www.soybeansandcorn.com/articles/8993/?page=1&

Btw: 810,000,000 liters = 213,979,362 gallons

Most of ours are 100,000,000 gal name plates.

roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Anyone looking at the markets today?

Hobby, I have a small average price corn contract to fill. I have sold some off the combine and deferred the income to next year. The rest of the corn will be stored in bins and in commercial storage. I still have about 50% yet to harvest. 
The soybeans are all harvested and in storage, both in my own bins and commercial storage.
I do have both corn and beans on basis contracts that I plan to cash out after the first of the year.

I still think we will have better prices coming.