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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Anyone selling?

I took advantage of the rally to sell the last old crop corn.  This is the latest I've held corn and I'm not comfortable with the quality, so I'm glad to get it sold for next week delivery.  It is 14% moisture but even though I've run the fan a few hours on several days and get the corn cooled, it seems to pick up heat pretty quickly.  I want it gone.  FM and damage is higher than normal although still acceptable.

I'm already hedged on new crop corn and soybeans so there is no sense in selling more into the rally unless I want to speculate.  It was weird to see the hedge account build up and up and then in two days nearly disappear.  Bean hedges are still holding up but I'm behind a little in the corn.

I wonder if those who have not sold so far are selling now or are they/you thinking the rally will go even higher and still holding out?

I wonder how I could have known to buy some calls?  Usually, that is a fool's errand.This year it would have been profitable if done right (which I never seem to be able to do).

 

Are you selling, already sold or waiting?

8 Replies
Sundowner
Contributor

Re: Anyone selling?

The last corn I sold (3 loads to core a bin) was Jan. 11th and got 3.85. Still sitting here with half my corn yet and was hoping to do better than that 3.85. Wishful thinking made me hold for something with a 4 in front. Hope has now met optimism with the lower than expected acreage report and stocks. I too am worried about condition but have a temp cable hanging in the center to help monitor it. I am going to transfer a couple thousand out of the bin in the next week to see it first hand, maybe do that today. I have had fleeting thoughts I should sell some on this rally but then it goes away when I hear the talk of 'hot and dry'.  And this is a different year, as the past couple we had good rallies into the end of June, but this year these past two + weeks it's been dropping until the report. And then there's the sayings big crops keep getting bigger, small crops get smaller,,,,so here I go again putting faith into the latter. Don't know about your area but my drive north into southern Minnesota two days ago surprised me,,,it was all stunted and yellow, corn and beans, drowned out areas, some beans not even sprayed yet, looked sick. Makes me think the numbers of 164-167 bu average may not be there this fall for the U.S. So again thinking small crop getting smaller. I guess inside, my gut feelings, with other things like raising the ethanol > 10 %, China purchases potential and the fact the fourth holiday usually is known for a reverse in the markets or an acceleration of a trend,,,,it's gets me all bulled up. Don't want to sell as much as I maybe should on this rally, too soon anyway.

0 Kudos
dekus
Contributor

Re: Anyone selling?

some dry weather needed, some need rain. man, i think it's dicey.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

 

Northcorn, what do you see in weather and guess at average corn yield this year up to now. i think

to early to say much about beans.

idalivered
Advisor

Re: Anyone selling?

sold a little old corn. still have a small amount of old corn unpriced. it's been a problem delivering my contracted corn to my local coop 'cause theyr'e full. worried about quality, but  no problems yet. even pleasantly surprised at test weights. about 1/3 of new crop sold for fALL and jan. Not nearly enough new soys sold tho. I'm holding about 5000 bu. of old soys hoping for basis improvement , but my resolve is weakening.....Coulda had 10+ in jan.

aginvestorr
Contributor

Re: Anyone selling?

Out of old crop in January (evening before report).  No new crop sold(2010)  Plenty of time to sell that.  Inflation(a currency event), and supply/demand metrics will give us a bull market into the beginning of 2011. imho

0 Kudos
centralillinois
Veteran Contributor

Re: Anyone selling?

Last year at this time our corn was barely knee high and not exactly looking very good. Illinois still averaged 174 bushels an acre although we did have a cool July and August which saved us.   This year most will be tasseled by July 4th, the ground is wet and wet weather predicted for next week. We finished planting corn on April 21st, which would be the earliest we've ever gotten done.  And two weeks later we had the most perfect stand I've ever seen.  I saw a lot more corn on corn being planted this year than last.  So I was shocked when I saw the number of planted corn acres. 

So I sold the last of my corn the day before the crop report.  Backyarditis?   I resisted the urge to sell 2010 corn but July of next year is trading for 4.11.  By fall that might not be a bad sale.   The price of fungicides has dropped, the corn might have weak stalks due to excessive moisture so I think we'll see a lot more fungicide applied on corn this year. 

The beans do not look as good as the corn.  So I've still got quite a few beans left from 2009.  Yesterday I saw a number of beans being planted and very few fields look as good as they should for this time of year. 

There is still a lot of corn left on the farm but I have to wonder what kind of condition it is in.  Most  was combined at over 30% and I'm guessing a frost in October had an impact on the quality. 

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re:Yes Jim

Somehow I got way behind in corn sales of '09 crop.

Had a good sale last fall and should have, could have, would have sold more before Jan report Smiley Mad but I did not!

Then I was like a deer in the headlights so have another small increment 6 weeks ago at not too bad a price then on June 30th with the up day,and a Holiday here in Canada on July 1st, I sold another bit.

Still have lots to sell and no 2010 sold.

Do not think I will show a really good average price this year but better than it looked a couple weeks ago have a bid in to sell more at C$150/tonne almost there now so will see what happens Tuesday.

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Nebraska Sandhiller
Frequent Contributor

Re: Anyone selling?

Trying to, hard to find a home for some.  Cashed in my July futures contracts before the price went back up. 

Made a cash contract for 2.98, but it will be the end of July or into Aug before they pick it up.  From past experience, it may be Sept before they take it.  They told me that a lot of the market area for local corn is locked up by a big trader and if anyone wants to sell in that area, they have to go through the big trader.  They were deleivering 100 loads a month through the trader, but now have been limited to 25 loads a month.  My other buyer says about the same thing, and that area includes 2 ethenol plants and quite a few  feed yards

 

 

Have another buyer that I hope will continue taking 1 load a week for around .50 under the board.  Can't get them to take more.  Heard that they are moving some of their own corn from bin to bin to keep it in condition.

 

I need to move more if I could find a home for it.  Got the top of the pile looking good now after a bunch of work with a scoop shovel but am still concerned with some closer to the center.

 

0 Kudos

Re: Anyone selling?

I sold just 1,000 bushel of corn today for 2010 off the combine for $3.60, had sold 2,000 bushels for $4.10. Sold 500 bushel beans at $9.07 Oct/Nov local delivery for $9.07 today. Will sell in small increments if the market keeps moving up. Will have the best corn we ever raised on one farm in one county and the worst corn we ever raised on three farms in another county.

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