Apparently La Nina is affecting Aussie wheat.

[Palouser]

This was a possibility that was known, the pattern predictable but not precisely. Western Australia state wheat has been rained on hard in the southern areas, probably makng much of it feed grade. Now the issue is whether the pattern will move into prime SE Aussie wheat.

To the degree that WA wheat is affected it determines how much low quality will be exported as there is little consumption in that part of the country and almost all is exported. Luckily China is looking for feed wheat, as are others.

[floydboy]

Overnight report from Rabobank, from Reuters News...

    "The national harvest should be the third-largest on record, according to the
Dutch-owned bank and follows a record 26.3 million tonnes crop in 2010/11.
    Significant rainfall at the end of September dramatically improved
conditions across eastern Australian grain regions, either consolidating or
improving yields, Rabobank's Sydney-based grains analyst Dean Smith said in a
report.
    He said in Western Australia, usually the country's biggest grain exporting
state, the majority of the 2011/12 wheat was in a superb condition with growers
in some western grain regions reporting their best ever crops."

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Yeah and the headlines over here say we have a near record crop too.......and the cnbc's of the world think we are flush with grain when the USDA comes out with an extra 200m of corn.....

Perspective........

[Palouser]

My source is likely more timely - Friday.

"Wheat farmers in the southern half of Western Australia are struggling to get their wheat harvest in, following unusually heavy rainfall, up to 70 mm in just a few hours, in early November. Western Australia might have expected a 12 million tonne wheat harvest this season, out of a total possible Australian harvest of as much as 26 million tonnes. The higher rainfall not only threatens to rot harvested wheat that is yet to be covered and protected against the weather – it also is likely to lower the protein level of the unharvested grains, rendering it only viable as animal feed."

[cerealtiller]

Palouser,

I have enjoyed reading your well researched and considered insights of the fundamentals of the global wheat trade for a few years now and have never had cause to question any of your past statements,you are invariably onto developing situations well before the rest of us.

As a grain grower in the eastern wheat belt of Australia the recent wet harvest of 2010/11 is all to raw ,as well as a couple more in my relatively short career,and in my experience protein is not affected by rainfall at harvest.Test weight will be reduced as will falling numbers but it is a myth that protein is reduced by wet weather on mature grain.This subject seems to come up here as well when ever the weather threatens and all expert opinion seems to agree on the above.By the way harvest is just getting under way here in Central NSW and it looks as though we are in for a wet few days!Anyway here's hoping for a bit of bullish news out of the Northern Hemisphere because I get the impression your sentiment hasn't been exactly wildly bullish lately,not in the short term anyway.

PS -I realise you're just quoting your WA source,if nothing else it prompted me to register and become a contributor not just a marketing " voyeur".Regards,CT.