cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Senior Contributor

Re: Are Prices As Bad As They Can Get?

To me the logical assumption at this point is an average crop.  The seed is not even in the bag, the fertilizer is not out there, we don't know what the weather will be, all I can assume is average. I also know that an average crop will not draw down the stock pile a lot.

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Are Prices As Bad As They Can Get?

I have no problem with distinguishing possibilities and dependable facts..... Yes the sun will come up tomorrow is a fact for me.... IF it doesn't the game is over.  History has proven the reliability of the sun.....

History has not proven the reliability of usda projections.  Usda actually avoids any attempt at "proving" accuracy.  Much easier to just "declare" accuracy.

 

quote

 

 

"USDA wasn't so far off on the crop this year and people still have a knee-jerk refusal to give them any credit."   

 

What did you base that conclusion on and when did the evidence appear.---Evidence not marketing promotion----I am not foolish enough to give usda the same level of reliability as the sun. --- history does not support that in any way... unless you are letting usda create the history...

 

Other than the Sun,  Everything else changes daily, as well as usda....and its self righteous declarations.

 

Excuse me I am getting that call from someone at a usda office wanting to help me fill out that survey and remind me that if I don't my county may be deleted from ARC payments....

 

Come with me Jim and spend more time looking for clues to the size of the actual crop........ First lets call one of the largest cattle feeders in the US and ask him about grain stocks and availability... then lets check the crop insurance claims for drought in the NW and the fumonicin claims in SW,  Check the ethanol output volumes through harvest and the basis changes through harvest in fringe areas where the size of the crop does matter.  These people and many more will express accuracy as to their locations and volumes.

Usda did not admit to a drought for nearly two years after it was trimming cattle numbers and destroying acres south of I-70.  Usda this year totally discounted the drought in the Dakotas.  

USda consistantly injects maximum potential to the crop yield before it is planted and discounts problems with the same crop until the next crop is planted. --- They work in fear constantly of being wrong, so they always shade the projections high-- the direction that renders "least damage" to reputations and job retention.   This is not conducive to accurate data.

Just as Iowa is positioned for above average crops nearly every year, usda positions itself never to look wrong.........and gives positive reinforcement to agriculture... at the cost of accuracy.

 

They don't deserve to be on the same page as the consistancy and accuracy of the Sun.

 

Veteran Advisor

Re: Are Prices As Bad As They Can Get?

Well, saying the sun will come up in the morning is a fact kind of puts you and me in a position where there is not much sense of talking about anything.

 

It is fair to say that the sun will come up is an assumption.  But to say ti is a fact is simply wrong.  Yes, we hope it will, but you and I are not god and we can't guarantee it.  This sort of reasoning and logic is taught in basic science and probability classes.

 

The refusal to use the information at hand when it has been shown so far to be credible seems to be a problem for a number of marketers.  I've heard that expressed by people not on this forum, people in the agriculture marketing business.

 

I will say, in parting, that I kind of believe you are just pulling my leg something fierce - I can't really believe you believe what you are writing.

0 Kudos
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Are Prices As Bad As They Can Get?

Jim....if you look at the science of chaotic systems (of which any biological factory is one, and any climate system is as well) the probabilities actually favor outliers quite often. And outliers in both directions can come back to back. The longer we don't have a crop issue any where in the world gets us closer to one some where in the world. 

 

So, for our farm, planning for another big crop is actually very ill advised. We are actually aggressively planning to capitalize on what is pretty likely to be the return of big time volatility in 2018. Very likely that since the entire world has reached "singularity" that we will have a weather event in most growing regions in the same year. Of course, it will be short lived  (kind of like 88 or 83) and will lay the foundation for the next ag depression in the early 2020's, but it will be an opportunity to get the ole liquidity back where we want it.

 

Just to pick a day, I'd be big buyer of wheat on Monday or Tuesday morning. 

 

If anyone looks at a reasonable map, it is extremely dry in the wheat belt and is only going to get drier in December. The new year will roll over and the global hot money might leap back into commodities. The Ag/soft commodities are cheaper relative to paper assets than at any other time in modern history.

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Are Prices As Bad As They Can Get?

Time,

My point in all of this is that we have to have a marketing plan in the case that we do have another big crop.  I maintain the data we have supports that contention, but if you disagree I won't argue with you - I just won't skip planning on the hope that someone (other than me) has a crop failure.

 

My impression of most of the posters here is they are unwilling to make a marketing plan that addresses another big crop.

 

I guess I'll leave it at that.

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Are Prices As Bad As They Can Get?

The mapping gadget in the cab verifies, the USDA  numbers are confirmed ---  

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Are Prices As Bad As They Can Get?

probably china saves our data, and google and Russia and the Equidor consolate somewhere.......... US we are still sending out surveys and sorting emails..................and projecting

 

 

Jim a friend said he bailed corn stalks while it was dry and sold them for $35 a bail, netting $105 per acre additional income with a bailer and swather he had in his yard...... IMO that is marketing in a below COP market.

Depending on a persons viewpoint, that is either adding 35 bushels per acre to his yield or $0.65 per bushel to his 160 bu yield.

 

That is marketing ....  

 

 

 

 

 

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Are Prices As Bad As They Can Get?

So tell me about this coming ag depression. Where will interest rates and land prices be?
0 Kudos