Are Soybeans Low Enough?

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

My broker said 8.30 was a likely low in soybeans.  ISU Bob Wisner has a chart out that says 8.30  I hear a lot of talk around here of extraordinary, in many case record soybean yields.  Carryout is projected to be in the 400+ range.  What is holding soybean futures prices up?

[Nigel]

Brazil will likely produce 97.8 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2015/16 crop year, up from 94.8 million tonnes from the 2014/15 revised crop forecast, crushing group Abiove said on Monday.  Abiove said Brazil will likely export 52.4 million tonnes in 2015 and 52.8 million tonnes in 2016.

[Blacksandfarmer]

Yields in Indiana and Ohio in the 30's that should be in the 50's maybe? I finished soybeans Friday, averaged mid 40's, not bad for what I had in them this year. Would have been closer to 50 bu average, but one field had heavy deer and water damage in spots.

[BA Deere]

Well I sure hope they don`t go any lower, beans could go up a buck and they are still stealing them from us.   Too many monkeys on the one side of the teeter-totter?

[giolucas]

Just FYI,

MARKET UPDATE JUDY CRAWFORD TRADES FOR TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2015

For some time beans have consolidated and technically suggested a bottom on their daily chart. One thing was for sure, if they sold off under 860 they made it clear they did not like being there. The exact same day they would rally right back over that level and into the “comfort zone” of their consolidation. Yet they would not break out to the upside. In the meantime meal kept drifting lower while bean oil struggled to find a temporary bottom for a change. Since beans tend to follow either the meal or bean oil, it now appears they could have been waiting for either meal or bean oil to get its act together. And that could be changing. Technically bean oil may have found more than a temporary bottom. It is clearly in an uptrend on the daily chart and as of this week, it is triggering a buy on both long term charts. It has been some time since that has occurred. So possibly this consolidating is telling us two things: beans are at a bottom and beans are waiting for either meal or bean oil to bottom so it can follow one of them again, as is its normal pattern. And it could just be that this time around meal will be handing the reins over to the bean oil.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

What was carry out supposed to be this year via last years projection after a record crop

400-500

We ended up closer to 150

Huh

O and just to start the process. 2016 drought in NA and SA

[elcheapo]

The answer to your question: NO

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

According to the U/Ill, last year was supposed to be 475 and ended up 191.  They commented on that and say they don't expect it to happen again.

As far as drought in SA and NA, that won't likley affect nearby soybean prices, it wouldn't seem likely that would affect nearby prices if it's not in the news now.  Nov 16 beans are 8.90 and Nov 15 are 8.82 so there's not much carry in the market to keep beans in the bin, only speculation and hope for an improved basis would do that.

[Nigel]

Analyst at my company posted this recently...I am not a supporter of Technical Analysis as a sole decision maker but for those that are something to chew on...

[BA Deere]

Not sayin` nuttin` but remember October is the insurance price set month, so come November the bottom could fall out.