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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Are the traders just realizing...........

1..........that this monster crop is late?

 

2..........that this monster crop isn't such a monster?

 

3..........that demand is using this crop about as fast as it is harvested?

 

4..........all of the above?

 

thoughts?

 

 

 

Just an observation.......I made 3 trips to the local ethanol plant yesterday.......only once did I wait for a truck that was already on the scales.....other than that, no waiting at all.  This is an area that is probably nearing the halfway mark in corn harvest.

 

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16 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Are the traders just realizing...........

Jmo a little of all of the above.  And I`ll add maybe funds are at least thinking about cheap commods and the risk of inflation.  Oh I know I know everybody and their dog is talking about "deflation", however the job of the markets is to prove most people wrong.   Christine Legarde calls deflation a olgre and inflation a genie, I think ultimately most of us would prefer a genie to a olgre.  And funds are playing chess while others are playing checkers....I don`t know.

 

I just wonder if now is the time to fill the soybean meal bins.

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farmer46
Senior Contributor

Re: Are the traders just realizing...........

Maybe, the shorts are getting out. I think traders are the main market movers right now.  I know right here in NE Wisconsin, very little beans and corn have been combined. Yet, the cows are needing feed. Recent price of $3.66 for corn at the coop I work with is quite high.

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Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

Re: Are the traders just realizing...........

All I have to say is that I did not average 40 bpa across a section of prime southern MN ag ground on my particular soybean crop. Maybe the silent guys like me are hitting the radar someplace. I wanted to keep my mouth shut on the poor soybean crop until the price was set for crop insurance, but it looks like the cat is out of the bag on that one.

 

Too much flooding early, three weeks of  summer drought, and an early frost do not provide the recipe for a bin busting soybean crop. Plus late planting in my case, and that darned water hemp.

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crophugger
Senior Contributor

Re: Are the traders just realizing...........

+1 Red went on aparts run yesterday didn't see any bean piles where they usually are and all those 10. Puts are loosing a little .

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Are the traders just realizing...........

The crop is quietly dissappearing at bargain prices....

 

Remember at these prices ,,17 billion will get used, shipped, eaten, ground, and consumed.  The size of the crop stops making a difference at cheap prices.   We will discover it is an average crop, very good in places, just fair in places --------------------- 

but we will use it all.  

 

Another big ethanol plant comes on line this fall in the sw.   

 

We drove the price into never never land.  But it is hard to miss the fact that the usage side of the equation is as dynamic as the production side ------ that is a wonderful reality.

 

 

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Are the traders just realizing...........

SW.....where is the plant located that is coming on line??

 

old one re-starting, or a new one??

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Are the traders just realizing...........

Hugoton, Ks?  Part cellulose...New one

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Are the traders just realizing...........

Ray  -- I am not sure my statement is accurate after I do some reading.

The earlier meetings held for the Abengoa plant development in Hugoton stated that the plant would be 30% cellulostic and 70% grain.  But the information I find now says 25 million gallon from cellulostic.  Nothing is said about grain ethanol.

 

Even though the plant is larger than the 110 m gallon plant at neighboring Liberal, Ks. ---- Arkalon Ethanol LLC

 

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/globenewswire/10103101.htm

 

I missed the grand opening and was hoping to get a clearer answer to production.

 

I apologize it the statement was misleading, I cannot confirm the grain ethanol portion of the plants production.

 

 

 

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Are the traders just realizing...........

no problem.....I appreciate you finding the article and posting it....

 

it sure appears that "we taxpayers" have a lot of $$$$ invested in cellulosic ethanol, so it better be a success!

 

$$ 97 million in a grant plus a huge loan guarantee.....

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