Well it's the holiday season.....we've lived thru thanksgiving, and soon the prime event will be here, with a fat man in
a white and red suit. This is usually a time of happyness and joy........but remember along with all the heart warming shows
there are two classics....scrooge and how the grinch stole christmas....
But I guess i've been reading too much....seems like i'm sounding like ole scrooge.....
With some recent posts, and reading, and just taking a look around.....the question is....are we kidding ourselves that
things are going to get better....I guess it depends on what you mean "better".
Just a few days ago, eagle eye interviewed the fellow in south america....there they can produce 2 crops per year. from
what i'm told, input costs are lower...i know they don't use the expensive equipment like we do....granted, they may not
have the high powered genetics....but if you can do two crops a year, do you really need a barn burner ?
I would find it interesting when ole eagle eye visits with his friend, ask what corn and bean prices are, and cost of
herb, such as generic roundup, and fertilizers....and average yeilds.
Also mentioned the hold up in why they are not even more agressive, was transportation, and a lab....a lab,
this is something that could be done for very little money (in the grand scheme of things), so what happens if they
get something as simple as a lab ??? the other was transportation....i'm amazed why they have not put in some
sort of rail shipping backbone, or something simular to our friends in aussieland, where they have certain highways
for large trucks....If these simple soluations are come up with by a simpleton in the midwest, think what some smarter
people down there do ?
granted, they might not get as much for their crops, but when you have twice as many, that might be a mute point.
how can we compair with a place that can have two crops a year, lower costs, from seed, fert, chem to equipment,
plenty of labor around....compaired to our high capital single crop per year, high input costs, and modern equipment.
If you are honest....which you should be with yourself at least.....it doesn't add up.
I'm told the defination of insanity is doing exactly the same thing again, and expecting a different outcome...but doesnt happen.
today, we pour money into the crops, only to have more and more challanges and less and less chance for profits.
what does that say of our mental state ?
what would you tell your brother in law if he had a business, and every year he makes less and less money, and expenses
keep climbing.....you know the answer......
BUT, what if we got "smarter", we get out....what then ? first there could be significant capital gains....then where to put
the money....cd and bonds....please....stock market...maybe, but you need to be smart, and if possible put stops in
place in case your wrong.....or you could do a property trade, but what good does that do, you'll just be buying some
other over priced property, that you may or may not know anything about.......
the outlook does not look good......the only market that has a carry is wheat, and it's a whopping 8 cents, right now
no storage hedge in corn or beans....only thing might be basis gain.
One thing i think you need to look at are products that now allow the buyup of crop insurance.
sorry to curddle your eggnog......
