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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Are we kidding ourselves ?

Well it's the holiday season.....we've lived thru thanksgiving, and soon the prime  event will be here, with a fat man in

a white and red suit.  This is usually a time of happyness and joy........but remember along with all the heart warming shows

there are two classics....scrooge and how the grinch stole christmas....

But I guess i've been reading too much....seems like i'm sounding like ole scrooge.....

With some recent posts, and reading, and just taking a look around.....the question is....are we kidding ourselves that

things are going to get better....I guess it depends on what you mean "better".

Just a few days ago, eagle eye interviewed the fellow in south america....there they can produce 2 crops per year.  from

what i'm told, input costs are lower...i know they don't use the expensive equipment like we do....granted, they may not

have the high powered genetics....but if you can do two crops a year, do you really need a barn burner ?

I would find it interesting when ole eagle eye visits with his friend, ask what corn and bean prices are, and cost of

herb, such as generic roundup, and fertilizers....and average yeilds.

Also mentioned the hold up in why they are not even more agressive, was transportation, and a lab....a lab,

this is something that could be done for very little money (in the grand scheme of things), so what happens if they

get something as simple as a lab ???  the other was transportation....i'm amazed why they have not put in some

sort of rail shipping backbone, or something simular to our friends in aussieland, where they have certain highways

for large trucks....If these simple soluations are come up with by a simpleton in the midwest, think what some smarter

people down there do ?

granted, they might not get as much for their crops, but when you have twice as many, that might be a mute point.

 

how can we compair with a place that can have two crops a year, lower costs, from seed, fert, chem to equipment,

plenty of labor around....compaired to our high capital single crop per year, high input costs, and modern equipment.

 

If you are honest....which you should be with yourself at least.....it doesn't add up.

 

I'm told the defination of insanity is doing exactly the same thing again, and expecting a different outcome...but doesnt happen.

 

today, we pour money into the crops, only to have more and more challanges and less and less chance for profits.

 

what does that say of our mental state ?

 

what would you tell your brother in law if he had a business, and every year he makes less and less money, and expenses

keep climbing.....you know the answer......

 

BUT, what if we got "smarter", we get out....what then ?  first there could be significant capital gains....then where to put

the money....cd and bonds....please....stock market...maybe, but you need to be smart, and if possible put stops in

place in case your wrong.....or you could do a property trade, but what good does that do, you'll just be buying some

other over priced property, that you may or may not know anything about.......

 

the outlook does not look good......the only market that has a carry is wheat, and it's a whopping 8 cents, right now

no storage hedge in corn or beans....only thing might be basis gain.

One thing i think you need to look at are products that now allow the buyup of crop insurance.

 

sorry to curddle your eggnog......

 

 

 

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9 Replies
giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Are we kidding ourselves ?

Elcheapo,

 

What are STOPS?

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Are we kidding ourselves ?

Gee Wizz cheapo - You need to go out and burn that HobbyFarmer book on doom and gloom - just saying - all this energy you are spending writing about the end of the world could be use in a better way than just sitting around waiting for the end to come . Smiley Happy 

 

Maybe you should take the little lady out to the local DQ and spring for some extra sprinkles -

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Are we kidding ourselves ?

Amen Mr. ECIN

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Are we kidding ourselves ?

gio......i say stops in the stock market as a couple of things.....i generally lump them into "stop loss" measures.

first, have an order to sell, if a certain price point is broken thru........second, on some stocks, you can do "puts and calls"

so to speak.

 

one of the more interesting are DRIPS.....usually low fees, but need to pick carefully on which company(s) you hitch

your wagon on, but need to be careful, some do have a carry charge....but usually cheap way to crawl into the

big market.

 

wouldn't you know it, i know about drips !!!

 

 

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Are we kidding ourselves ?

Elcheapo,

 

I know what stops are, I guess it was a poor attempt at humor.  In my case, I just get out of my losing position when I feel that I have taken too much pain and regroup.  Thus, I do not use STOPS.  

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Are we kidding ourselves ?

Gio said -- just get out of my losing position when I feel that I have taken too much pain and regroup  -- lol

 

Gio - I get enought of that just farming - Smiley Happy

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Are we kidding ourselves ?

if we're not in the same boat, we are sutely floating in the same tub...

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Are we kidding ourselves ?

Elcheapo, you gotta get back the eye of the tiger 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7CaiWxKYBo 

 

Brazil puts their pants on one leg at a time, Goldman/Sachs has them in a depression so building their infrastructure will build slow.  Even with their tradecheating by currensy manipulate, still these prices are so low it has to be hurting them too.  Actually a longer period of $13 beans would brought more land into production and they would`ve had the funds to build roads and make the Amazon navigable.

 

I think every farmer should`ve raised hogs at least in their past, Everything I`ve needed to know I`ve learned from raising hogs.  Hogs grow quickly and they get worth less and less the more overweight they get, so you can`t really hold them too long hoping for a better price, you sell.  Hogs always have a smile on their face, the market hogs only live 6 months and if they spent their lives smiling everyday we should too.  Pigs are cute, but hogs at 5, 6 months get homely so we probably do them a favor taking them to market. 

 

Hogs are a microcosm of where other commodities are going in general.  Hogs are always just 1 year away from over-production and prices tanking.  Cattle and crops take a mite longer, but that`s the direction they end up as well.  When they started tearing up golf courses to plant corn, the handwritting was on the wall.

 

But the best things in life are free, if we are blessed with eyesight we should try and appreciate the colors and beauty of every Sunrise and Sunset.  If God has given us the ability to run across our farm yard, that is exactly what we should do, walking is for old people   🙂

BF2012
Advisor

Re: Are we kidding ourselves ?

Epic Rant.   Thanks

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