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Honored Advisor

Are ya better off than 2016?

Here`s a chart showing farm income with and without government subsidies.  In 2016 farm income was $49 billion plus $13 billion subsidy, $62 billion total.  This year projected is $66 billion WITHOUT subsidies and $103 billion WITH subsidies...wow! no wonder they sold a farm in Grundy county for $12,000/acre the other day. 

Point being, in 2020 without subsidies we are $4 billion better than in 2016 with subsidies.  I know, your mileage may vary, if  your farm had to euthanize hogs and got hit by the derecho, but as a whole things ain`t so bad.

Chart from the American Farm Bureau Federation 

https://twitter.com/New10_AgEcon

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Are ya better off than 2016?

YES I am.

 

It also appears to me a lot of folks out

here in the Hinterlands are also.

The online farm auction sites are finding  

bidders willing to part with sizable sums

of money.

Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Go ahead, cherry-pick the data but .....

I don't know exactly where Farm Bureau got all their numbers but here's what the ERS was saying Sept. 2: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/farm-income-and-wealth-statistics/data-files-us-and-state-lev...

They present the data in couple a different formats but as you can see from their spreadsheet summary data below it looks like low livestock prices in 2016 account for most of the decline and direct government payments ($37 billion) accounts for all most all the increase in 2020.

  Ask yourself, is the country better off when government payments to farmers increased 286% between 2016 and 2020?

net farm income.png
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Honored Advisor

Re: Go ahead, cherry-pick the data but .....

Govt stuff would always say your better off now— job security etc.  billions better as long as we don’t take possession and allow them to manage the numbers for us. 

Better off is seldom a matter of $$$.  But that’s the easy way to figure it. The gubmnt way.  Every problem gets fixed with a pocketful of cash— “it’s your neighbors money, don’t tell him where ya got it”.  

Do you feel more secure?

have enough ammo?

can you afford to replace your tractor?

Can you live without Walmart or the ups man?

can you get Johnny Carson reruns on your cheaper tv? ( the tv viewers must have been much smarter than today’s)

can you get a joke? Answer no if you check your phone for definitions.

no we’re not better off — we have complicated the problems and dumbed down education.  If we bring manufacturing back home we will have to immigrate workers— ours are protesting incoherently. 

 

Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Go ahead, cherry-pick the data but .....

Govt stuff would always say your better off now— job security etc. billions better as long as we don’t take possession and allow them to manage the numbers for us. Better off is seldom a matter of $$$. But that’s the easy way to figure it. The gubmnt way. Every problem gets fixed with a pocketful of cash— “it’s your neighbors money, don’t tell him where ya got it” useing the $ metric and answering the original intent of the question, yes I am.

Do you feel more secure?

I do not feel less secure than 2016. The low spot was the obummer election.

 

have enough ammo?

Yes, any more than one clip will be more than you need. If they target you you'll probably not get more than a few shots off if you even get to your gun. They are not gonna call ahead and make an appointment with you to pillage and loot and most likely will not come alone.

 

 

can you afford to replace your tractor?

yes, and I did.  also replaced the combine and pickup this summer. They all showed up without a payment book. Of course the grain bins are close to empty.

 

Can you live without Walmart or the ups man?

yes I could easier than my wife. We've got four other options for food, Fed ex and Spee Dee also deliver more here than ups.

can you get Johnny Carson reruns on your cheaper tv? ( the tv viewers must have been much smarter than today’s)

Yes

 

can you get a joke?

Used to but obviously can't anymore 'cause I don't get Biden/Harris

Answer no if you check your phone for definitions. no we’re not better off — we have complicated the problems and dumbed down education. If we bring manufacturing back home we will have to immigrate workers— ours are protesting incoherently. 

Agree with you here.

Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Go ahead, cherry-pick the data but .....

Like I often remind my farming friends, farming is a mature industry.  Our "factory" doesn`t any or many walls, EWG.org, Zillow.com, google earth, whoownsthis.com has taken the place of sitting around the coffee shop guessing.  No secrets.

Me personally, we have a goal of being debt free by the time i`m 60, I have the last kid in college and although she works hard, she still needs financial help and i don`t want her graduating with student loans...so we are fighting battles on 2 fronts.

So, I suppose I could say "I`m poor I`m poor Vote for Biden!".  However, we`ve helped our kids, my net worth is higher than 2016, my total debt is below 5%.   I could borrow money and my Wife could drive a car with 250,000 fewer miles and I could have more machinery logos with the Deere jumping up instead of jumping down.  Smiley Happy

I`m scared of debt, my friend borrowed .4% money to build a 65,000 bushel bin, but I feel it`s a trap.  There`s a saying about "walking when everyone else is running".  

Other than a skidloader and disc mower, the logos on my machinery are like this, but it`s paid for   Smiley Happy

Taking a Look Through Time: Exploring John Deere Logo History

Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Go ahead, cherry-pick the data but .....

Cherry pick the data, then “go ahead and cherry pick the data.”

What the 2020 projected data might imply is that a vast amount of unneeded borrowed money was used to buy farmers votes.

Thats at least as good a conclusion as yours.

The average of the previous 4 years vs. the recent ones is probably a better comparison.

Not that it was your point.

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Go ahead, cherry-pick the data but .....

When one considers the trillions of dollars spent just this year and the 2+ trillion being considered in Congress now the amount designated for "buying" farmers' votes is chump change.

I think they've moved beyond spending my grandchildren's money to the next generation.

The country will be close to 30 trillion in debt next year.  And to think 19 years ago the budget was balanced.

THROW THE BUMS OUT!!!

 'The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.'

 Alexis de Tocqueville

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Honored Advisor

Re: Go ahead, cherry-pick the data but .....

Just my take on it, when the national debt hit $6 Trillion that became unsustainable.  We got to that level circa 2001, 9/11 and the decades long revenge wars and irrational fear to camel herders so we doubled the debt.  Then to recover the debt got doubled again and Lord knows what all those unfunded mandates have done +$100 Trillion ...the spending where if it doesn`t go up every year let alone cutting people froth at the mouth & throw furniture around.  

Obama seemed to have no trouble winning while simultaneously giving the farmer the finger for 8 years.  Now, instead of irrational fear of camel herders, we have irrational fear of a strain of influenza.  Some how $20 billion couldn`t be found to have a wall and border security, now we shut down the economy pay some people more money to sit home than be productive at their jobs. 

We spent $3 Trillion and another $3 Trillion in the hopper and anything less than $3 Trillion is called a "skinny spending bill".  After we passed the unsustainable $6 Trillion debt was passed, might as well see how far below "E" on the gas gauge we can go before running out of fuel.  But i would say, don`t spend on stupid intangible crap, spend it on infrastructure which at least puts people to work and if we have a depression at least have good roads and bridges to look at.

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Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Go ahead, cherry-pick the data but .....

You must already be anticipating defeat if you've flopped the BA two step over to being a deficit scold.

When the deficit was surging in a pretty decent economy and buying puny 3% growth, you were fine with it.

BTW, this is how that worked out 

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