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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Argentina Crop Update

The grain markets have been trading and keeping an eye on South America's crop production. We will get some new numbers on March 10, from the USDA. However, my Crop Expedition reporters that I traveled with in Brazil are now in Argentina. Today, they sent me an update. Here it is:


"We are in Argentina. The rain came back and the crop is in recovering. Soybean has potential between 48 and 50 million/t. Two months ago due the dry weather the estimate was between 44 and 45 million/t. So, the losses will be smaller than they expected. Last year the harvest in Argentina was 54 million/t. In resume, this crop will be smaller than last year. But, this crop will be not so bad like they estimated in the beggining. Today we are in Buenos Aires (Ministry of Agriculture and Argentine Cooperative Association)."
Source: By Crop Expedition/Gazeta do Povo.



Meanwhile, Allendale Inc. released estimates Thursday for the upcoming USDA Supply/Demand Report for March 10 at 7:30am CST. The estimates include comments on South America's production. Here it is:


"US ending stocks will now have declined in nine of the past ten months. Higher ethanol usage is the driver behind this month's decline. Argentine corn production is lowered by 0.5 million tonnes to 21.5. Brazil production is left unchanged at 51 mt.
 
Soybeans - Domestic crush has been weak for months. This month we have slight concern over exports. We expect USDA to keep Argentine soybean production unchanged at 49.5 million tonnes. Brazil production is increased 0.5 million tonnes to 69.0," Allendale's Rich Nelson says.

Mike


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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Argentina Crop Update

Argentine Update:


A market analyst traveling on the Gazeta do Povo Crop Expedition through Argentina provides this update:


"Argentina has seen excellent soybean fields with exceptional recovery from an earlier drought. For corn, drought was more problematic. On Tuesday, this Crop Expedition will give estimates about soybean and corn harvest in Argentina.

Corn crops are out of danger and in the case of soybeans, they still have 40 days risk of drought. I believe in harvest, the soyaben crop will top 50.0 million metric tons, and corn 19.0 million ton. The next 40 days will be decisive."

Hope this helps,

Mike
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