Argentina embargoes wheat

[Palouser]

Supposedly the last ship looking for wheat loaded corn instead.

[Palouser]

Surprised not to see this coming? Maybe need a dedicated 'page' to keep track of these things?

[ray h.]

    It seems like the powers have all eyes on corn to the point of ignoring wheat.One of these days the wheat gear is going to jamb a the trade will go,oops!

[Palouser]

I've been hanging in there to figure out which way to roll. I'm now readjusting my sites on the market.

One thing I've learned over the years is that the market shifts usually emerge from periods of conflicting information and market directions that shrug off physical information contrary to the conventional market outlook. That's why seasonal patterns can be the greatest head fake. One needs to let the physical trends/developments be the priority even when market trends  tend to dominate the day. Physical trends eventually trump seasonals every single time even if it takes awhile to take hold.

The clearest examples were the 2007-8 wheat situation (that could be assumed several years out) and the Russian drought the market could not accept until is was overwhelming fact.

News beats patterns for physical grain.

[Palouser]

According to Agrimoney the UK has continued importing at a record pace and will aquire the most foreign wheat in 35 years (3 million tons) after several years of poor quality conditions for its own crop.

[Palouser]

This would be due to Russian wheat output. Russia has had continuing issues w/ dry weather and has drawn down it's government stocks which the government might feel the need to replenish. Therefore the amount of available exportable supplies may be downgraded.

[timetippingpt]

And besides, Pal, it is TIME for a rally in wheat