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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

So, here's the full story about how Argentina's farmers are sitting on a bunch of soybeans. The story was filed by Luis Vieira, a South American freelance writer for Agriculture.com. So, what do you think, a market-impacting factor? I mean, Brazil's increased soybean production is already, pychologically killing any soybean momentum.

 

Thanks Luis,

 

Mike 

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10 Replies
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

Thank you Mike and Luis,

 

to me, this seems bullish long term (into spring) - effectively it's the strong hands (commercials) holding a 65,000 contract long.

Once US gets thin enough - another 5mmt or less, sold for export (they) will be last store w/ stock. buyers will have to bid up for product.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

Meanwhile, a Brazilian agronomist shared these photos with me, this morning. He visited the state of Mato Grosso this week. Here is what he found:

Brazil beans 5 11.20.2013.jpg

 

 

Brazil beans 11.20.2013.jpg

 

Brazil beans 4 11.20.2013.jpg

 

Brazil beans 3 11.20.2013.jpg

 

Brazil beans 2 11.20.2013.jpg

 

Though I understand you judge a crop how it finishes, these beans look to be off to a great start, I'd say.

 

Mike

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luisvieira
Senior Contributor

Re: Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

It is not going to be an easy crop. The earworm started to bite cotton crops in Bahia, but spread to corn and soybean crops all over the country. You can add that to the typical rust and the logistics probems... profits may shrink for Brazilian farmers.

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luisvieira
Senior Contributor

Re: Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

Looking into that, Basf launched last week in Rio Grande do Sul a new fugicide in order to combat the rust. Just time will tell if it's going to work.

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hanktbd
Senior Contributor

Re: Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

Luisviera,

 

Could you expand on that earworm story some more. My first thought was that it is not a big deal since soybeans can stand a lot of defoilation early in their life cycle with minimal effect on yields. However I continue to see bits and pieces about it as though it could have a large impact. TIA

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

I'm hearing intense heat is approaching in the next few days for more areas of northeast Brazil. And, heavy rains for the southern part of Brazil could halt planting? Even hail for some areas. Weather pressure for the Brazilian market? Anything serious, Luis? What do you hear?

 

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

Mike,

 

I'm getting deja vu from what your describing in SA forecast.

 

heat north, rain south........or............snow 1 week - triple digit heat the next????????Smiley Wink

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luisvieira
Senior Contributor

Re: Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

Yes, the weather has been like Mike said. But planting of beans in Mato Grosso (95%) and in Paraná (80%) is almost finished. Prices, however, are being more attractive in Paraná and the beans are being sold faster than expected in that state, located in the south.

 

I just learned that the earworm has reached soybean crops in Rio Grande do Sul, which is pretty far from where it started spread, in the northeast. Agronosmits are saying, on the other hand, that there is no need to "panic" yet.

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hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: Argentina sits on wall of soybeans

Hi Luis,

 

Anything on the political calendar that might change the circumstances?

 

TIA

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