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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Argentine wheat chaos!

The note I have is translated and reminds me of Indian explanations in South Asia - somewhat hard to penetrate as to it's full meaning and context.

 

1)  Argentine wheat mills are unable to secure sufficient amounts of bread milling wheat and are laying off workers. Therefore the supplies of flour are expensive and hard to obtain.

 

2) Bread prices are sky rocketing.

 

3) The government is now facing the necessity of allowing wheat imports to keep the mills going and bread affordable but this is complicated by politics (wouldn't you and I know). So the pertinent minister would like to wait until AFTER the elections (very soon?).

 

4) This is on the heels of a confusing census of this year's wheat prospects which were stated to be very low - but then it was announced that the numbers may have been incomplete. Absolute confusion there.

 

5) Wheat acres have been dropping like a rock due to rain, drought, frost and export taxation to try and assure a good domestic supply.

 

6) Uruguay might have as much as 100,000 tns left and might be a quick supplier - maybe.

 

 

 

 

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10 Replies
rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Argentine wheat chaos!

Is this a regional issue....or a global issue??

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Argentine wheat chaos!

I think it is just Argentina, though Brazil's need probably has helped draw down wheat stocks in the area. As far as i know Brazil is largely buying US wheat at this time.

 

Argentina's ag issues have been complex, and the government's policies, though an effort to keep domestic prices affordable, have probably also been counter productive. Best laid plans of mice and men. Farmer's aren't the best friends of the current leaders because they have relied heavily on export taxes and permits for government funding. After defaulting on debts some years ago few are willing to loan money to restructure the economy. They had to go cold turkey. From the richest country in S America they have become one of the poorest.

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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Argentine wheat chaos!

'15 bids will be up soon. May be a good idea to sell hrw at 280+\-

Great selling prices for 14 too...

Uhmm. Palouser, as an FYI, since the praries have a bumper spring wheat harvest, so our spring wheat in Ontario is worth as much as winter wheat. There is absolutely no incentive to grow spring wheat in my area. Just thought that was interesting, though unrelated.
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crophugger
Senior Contributor

Re: Argentine wheat chaos!

Has anyone heard of the fires down under and are they in the crop growing areas?

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pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: Argentine wheat chaos!

Sure,   to what degree and to whom does it matter. Yiu are the specialist in taking a line and exprapoliating it across the board in false excess. . " Therefore the supplies of flour are expensive and hard to obtain.""' how hard,will the 8.8 MMT be hidden and left out, are they short  2 3 or 1 MMT for their internal needs. they won't be exporsting the worl of whet writ large.

 

Press/media makes great shiocking headlines- Mesaage for US producers is add to 13/14 sales, sell 20% more, Fill demand do economic good and you get paid-- it is economically moral.  

 

2) Bread prices are sky rocketing.",, to what degree, why, doubleing, tripling.

HOW tight is it.

 

Wheat is grown, harvested, distrubuted, and  consumed.Iis the formula and

on a workd basis as needed

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Argentine wheat chaos!

Fires I read about are in eastern mountains near cities.  Only reason it got press.

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sneeky253
Frequent Contributor

Re: Argentine wheat chaos!

Fires are no where near grain areas. Having said that there are plnty of other problems with the eastern wheat belt. North Western NSW and Queensland are basically in drought, some big areas didn't get planted and/or wont be harvested. There have been reports of severe frost damage in North Eastern NSW and in areas of the central west. Crops further south in southern NSW and Victoria are very good. All in all putting it at about average for the Eastern States. 

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paull4159493
Reader

Re: Argentine wheat chaos!

Southern NSW and Victoria wheat in big trouble also with frost following 6 dry weeks during grain fill. Hay being cut everywhere. Commonwealth bank dramatically reduced NSW wheat yesterday to 6mmt. That being said WA and SA crops have gotten better.
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hardwheat
Frequent Contributor

Re: Argentine wheat chaos!

sneeky 253 ius correct basically but will change one word eastern australia is JUST average

harvest reports are coming in now low test weights and yeilds fractionally below what was thought above average was thought but just downgraded a tad

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