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Honored Advisor

Arlan Suderman Market Plus

Interesting, China can get US corn in their port for 6 bucks, they auction off corn for over 7 bucks.  The Chinese communist government makes sure their farmers get $8-$9 for corn they raise, they are on the road to grain self sufficiency, already +90% there. 

The $6 corn China buys does not hit the domestic market to compete against Chinese farmers...why doesn`t the US government take as good care of farmers as a communist nation does of their farmers?   Well, for one thing we overwhelmingly want to race to the bottom, "setasides" are a bad word.  We want to raise corn below cost of production and won`t cut production for fear that we will "lose market share" f o r    b e l l o w   c o s t  o f   p r o d u c t i o n  grain.  You know, if you put a millstone on your neck, you`ll get to the bottom of the sea even quicker.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVmTMqAgN0I

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Advisor

Re: Arlan Suderman Market Plus

The USA needs to get its ducks in a row.....we  have a great opportunity to get out of the middle east entanglements, to go all in on domestic bio fuel production to supplement or replace foreign oil, and quite honestly Trump is the only guy that can do this, not another "never saw a foreign conflict I didn't like" liberal.

No way we should be subsidizing low cost grains to China...let them feed their own people...we feed ours and feed the friendly nations that want our trade, and make fuel out of the balance or as a last resort, go with mandatory setasides to reduce supplies. I really don't want that route, though....if we do that, and drive up the world price, the grain from foreign sources will find a way into the USA. 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Arlan Suderman Market Plus

Eplants aren`t receiving, bin sweep out $2.70.  It gets to China and Boom! it`s $6 and China auctions it off directly or indirectly for +$7.  So, whoever the hell is bidding up $7.40 corn in Asia should come directly HERE and we could deliver for $6.99 and maybe for this good idea let the US farmer have 50¢ more of it?

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Senior Advisor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?

Maybe so, but trump is only guy who most certainly won't do it.  He has granted 54 illegal small refinery exemptions out of the 130 US refineries, 42% of them.  Trump and the republicans are joined at the hip with the Oil Industry.

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Honored Advisor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?

Has the "basement dweller" went on record saying he will recind the refinery waivers?

This is the trouble with being the one in charge, you have to make tough decisions for the good of the entire country, knowing a sizable number of people will hate your decision.  Like it or not, there`s a very good argument to not let small refineries go bankrupt, you want to be at the total mercy of BP and Shell at the pump? 

Like farmers producing a 3 billion bushel excess of corn in a "just in time inventory" world, our road to energy self reliance solves some problems and creates others.   There was a period of time that they would give you $37 just to take a barrel of oil.  Now it`s $40 but costs $50 to breakeven...sound familiar?  

Bailing out farmers or bailing out the oil industry, at least we have someone in the White House that does acknowledge our existence and sends checks, is it his fault we rent $300 land, buy 120` Hagies, 36 row planters, combines that need Def and $250/unit seed?  All this when we`ve been saying since 2014 that grain prices are below cost of production.   I hate to be the guy that tells the kiddos that Santa doesn`t exist, but it`s high time some of the complainers look in the mirror.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?

No oil needed until we have covid under control. 

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Advisor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?

this $2.70 corn and $8 soybeans is going to send a lot of ripples up and down stream. I heard on the radio that hundreds of MN farmers are in bail out negotiations with lenders right now, and you just wonder what is going on. 

We only rent two smaller farms and have landlords that will budge on the rent if the $$$ are not there but I cannot fathom the stress of having a highly leveraged, mostly rented land operation right now. I know these BTO's live for a big payday and thrive on risk and reward, but this must be outside any of their black swan projections.

I don't know how much more I can cut...$120 seed corn, low buck chemical programs....I guess I can cut some on the P and K and I have stopped buying any equipment outside of Gilberts auction deals (you were spot on about the hay balers btw...two of them, older but clean about $250 each. Looked ready to bale hay.)

I guess I could clean up my own soybeans and take the Bayer fees off of what they owe me for dicamba damages. Now that Monsanto is no longer a US company, will the courts even enforce their tech fees?  If Burn Loot and Mayhem can destroy public property with impunity, why go after a farmer trying to survive, right?

This is shaping up to make the 1980's look like a walk in the park.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?


@wrightcattle wrote:

No oil needed until we have covid under control. 


BTW Trump is not capable to control coivid.  We need to find Other Real talent. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?

A lot of mixed messages out there, supposedly we`re all broke, yet last fall and this spring at the coop "ding ding   ding ding" the tenders hauling MAP and Potash were meeting themselves coming and going, pourin` it on for farmers that allegedly receive below COP prices.   Then this summer prices crash further and we have a drier type summer for a change, well, "rrrrraaaaare rrrrrrare   rrrrareeeeee" that yellow Air Tractor squirted every are corn & beans around me with fungicide, what +$30/acre?  I thought dry years fungy didn`t pay especially $2.70 corn and $8 beans?  Everywhere I go, winged ear signs and all the popular signs up, advertising "plant this, only $250 a bag!".  Are they nuts?  A generous banker? Money tree out back?  I guess I was home sick the day from school when they had a "special meeting" with the FFA ag class on how to make all this work.    Smiley Happy   Any of these guys want to write a book, I`ll be first in line at Barnes & Noble for my autographed copy   Smiley Happy

But we have a glut of oil and hate to break it to the kiddos but we also have a glut of corn too.  These ethanol plants were built during "Peak oil!" hysteria ...$2.50 corn and $100+ oil.  There`s still faded bumper stickers "Ethanol doesn`t need a aircraft carrier escort"...well things changed.  8 unprecedented above trend crops  (yeah yeah yeah USDA lies) and fracking in the Bakkens. 

And "getting covid under control" how shoot everybody that has it?

 

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Advisor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?

BA, as far as spring fertilizer applications going....that would be accounted for by bad weather last fall, and also by cash strapped farmers holding off until spring for application.

The fungicide applications are a puzzler....one of the local agronomy gurus calls all of that stuff magic fairy dust and doesn't recommend it.

I used to spray on HeadLine on my soybeans in August and it did seem like it gave a few bushels of yield kick, but kept them green into October...maybe that is where the kick came from...lengthened the growing season...I dunno.

I am just hunkering down trying to survive with full bins until the rally finally comes...living hand to mouth until then. Just like the 80's.....relying on the government checks to pay the land taxes and payments , the basic inputs, and selling the oldest smelliest grain on any small rallies right now to keep things fresh. At some point though, it quits working.

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