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Contributor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?

Covid is under control the death rate is .037% and that is  counting the guy dying with stage 4 cancer  and  the motorcycle accident etc...... most of its fake news unless you are in a nursing home and your liberal Gov ships them in to get the death rate up, is that the talent your talking about?

Honored Advisor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?

I wonder how many farmers have been spoiled and don`t actually know how to farm differently to survive?  There`s a whole generation that don`t know what a row cultivator was used for or why planters have markers on them... a useless appendage like the appendix.  

I had a guy in his late 50`s tell me "if I had to go back to cultivating, I`d quit farming!   I hated it!"  I didn`t say anything, but thought, wow you must not want to farm very badly.    But that`s some of the snowflakes that we have out there these days... kind of like "I wanna start a business, but I`m taking weekends off and quitting  every day at 5!"  Lottsa luck buddy. 

Maybe the banker will have a plan to get a guy on his feet and the farmer will say "Nope, I`m done!".   Just keep going until the banker pulls the plug.  Farming isn`t as sexy as it was in 2011.  A fair number of guys came back to the farm in 2009, farming with dad, only having good going.  I wondered what will happen if one day we go through a bumpy patch.  Now, other than those complaining on social media, I don`t see too many making changes to their own bottomline. 

Complaining about Trump and ethanol and China, if that`s all it takes to put someone under, they never had anything worth losing in the first place.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLazyStqk3Q

Rose Garden | The "Rose Garden" poster was the first in a se… | Flickr

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Senior Advisor

Re: "0.037% " , you better check your math, boy.

"0.037%", you better check your math, boy.  The best estimates are that it's between 0.7 and 1.0 percent of the whole population and 3.3 % of the confirmed infected.  1% mortality is 30 times the number you quote. 

The death rate of those hospitalized is about 13%.

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Contributor

Re: "0.037% " , you better check your math, boy.

First off I'm not your boy, second you are doing "best guess estimates" of the globe I gave you hard facutal numbers they are called facts in the real world. 

Senior Advisor

Re: "0.037% " , you better check your math, boy.

In the US, CDC reported info --

cumulative deaths as % of population -- about 0.05% (162K/331M) -- survival 99.95% so far of population.

cumulative deaths as % of total cases -- about 3.2% (162K/5.01M) -- survival 96.8% so far of those infected.

Of course, the .05% number will increase as more people die.  The second number still depends greatly on how many are tested, how many unknowns have already had it, etc.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: You can't say you've survived it until you've been infected.

Widespread antibody testing carried out for the CDC suggests that about 2% of the US test positive for the antibodies. Two percent of  320 million is 6.4 million.  This compares quite closely with the 5.2 million confirmed cases reported in the US.

165,000 deaths for 6.4 million infections is 2.6%.  This suggests that if the whole population of the US is even tually infected then 8.3 million will have died.

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Re: You can't say you've survived it until you've been infected.

Leading causes of death in the USA:

  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Life was not without risk before Covid. Lots of irrational fear out there.

Senior Advisor

Re: You can't say you've survived it until you've been infected.

Antibody testing hasn't been nearly as widespread as virus testing.

Estimates for "herd immunity" have ranged from around 40% to 70%, or more.

If we assume protective measures remain in place for the most at risk, people remain sensible (at least where we are now, or improved, though that might be a big assumption), and treatments improve (both in-patient and out-patient) -- 

Then if we assume 70% infection rate on 70% of the population lesser protected or unable to distance or more at risk, that would mean around 1/2 of the remaining population actually becomes infected eventually.  Then, if we assume the worst death rates are behind us, and younger and less at risk make up a higher percentage of those infected, the 'final' death rate should be somewhere much lower than where we are now.  Still, even at 1% of additional cases, that would be around 1.6 million additional deaths before this thing runs its course, assuming no vaccine and no effective treatment. 

On the other hand, if we continue basic measures (wash, disinfect, distance, facemasks when cannot distance, avoid prolonged contacts and crowds, and maintain/improve the safeguards for those most at risk), plus more effective treatment, I personally would expect additional deaths to trend downward even without a vaccine, with total additional deaths not much more than deaths to date, and perhaps much less.  Probably (and hopefully) more realistic than assuming 100% infection at current death rate.  

In the future, even with a vaccine, it is likely Covid-19 will continue, though on a much more limited scale.  Guess it depends on the effectiveness of a vaccine, the resources committed to eradication worldwide, and acceptance by people to receive the vaccine.

Honored Advisor

Re: "Trump is the only guy that can do this "?

Covid is under control and has been since its careful release. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: You can't say you've survived it until you've been infected.

I think we`d be surprised how many of "us" actually have or had Covid and never realized it.  How many of us might have allergies this summer and if we`re healthy, we write Covid symptoms off.  It sounds like doctors know Hydroxy is an effective treatment and prophylactic, however because "you know who" was in favor then "it can`t be good!".

I have a feeling if the election goes the wrong way this fall, on November 4th reporting on Covid will do a complete 180..."oh it wasn`t as bad as we thought, go back to work, go shopping let`s get the economy going and prove socialism works!".   That`s the power of those that in the past we used to say "buy their ink by the barrel". 

It sounds like Covid vaccine won`t be like a tetanus shot that you receive every 10 years.  You`ll need a Covid shot and booster every year and then it will mutate and it`ll be a guess what strain to vaccinate for.  Just like all the other flus, people that get flu shots are some of the sickest people I know, however they`d perhaps be worse without it.

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