cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Advisor

Re: Around 2040

finishing.....

 

if I were part of the R minority I'd, By God, want Those People punished no matter what.

 

That electoral map with the big red blob in the middle may turn out to be a problem.

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Around 2040

....and to point out that the deal may be sealed today- reconciliation required- that guarantees that government cash for much of anything will be scarce going forward.

 

When the Clinton/Gingrich team quickly, and unexpectedly approved the double down on farm payments in '98 it was in a rare time in history. 

There was a budget surplus (only on a unified basis) and they were feeling like they had some money to burn.

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Around 2040

It would seem to me that government cash going forward has to get harder to find no matter who is in office.  

 

Taking a long term outlook on farming and especially crop production, it would seem to me to be responsible to assume that farms will have to be prepared to deal with more risk on their own.  At the same time, they need to expand/grow or go by the wayside.  There might be a lot of room for getting caught by volatile markets when highly leveraged.

 

Well, who knows.  Maybe Cargill will lease all of Iowa by then and we'll all be contract laborers.  (Can't call ourselves farmers then, but maybe we can't, now.)

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Around 2040

Cash is actually limitless for a nation with a sovereign currency although wisdom dictates some restraint.

 

This is about social engineering and political payback, not the deficit.

 

But in general I tend to agree that farm payments are no longer a very efficient means to rural development.

 

 

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Around 2040

Some things change, yet remain the same....

 

All those farmer owned grain facilities was mentioned.

 

Seems to me that so many of those "farmer owned" facilities created in the 1950's (coops) have been condemned and fallen out of use the last few years and it is being left up to "farmers" to replace them.

 

I am slightly involved with an expansion by a coop and a farmer owned storage facility and it seems to me like a difficult dance.... with the spread of entity size these days. But when storage is needed it seems to get done to the advantage of someone.

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Around 2040

Elcheapo,

 

Even though I am fairly invested in a grain facility that bypasses a middleman I want to maintain good relations with(coop), I share your concern fir the merger issue.  The small locally owned coop system is nearly gone.....

the texas panhandle had a coop based on wheat at one time that was one of the larger in the US for a long time with 17 locations...... just became part of a conglomerate that covers that area and most of the state of Oklahoma and a few sport in Ks....

 

The future will be interesting,,,,,, grains may be well on their way to the the new technically enhanced corporate structure.

 

Will producers be scrambling to find their place in it like the local coops are?

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Around 2040

Sw I think you are wise to "eliminate" the middle man on the grain markets.   If you have some modest scale, and don't mind

becoming a semi-driver.......yes......having bins, holding and hauling at a user of product, processor...or sometimes just

take the carry, and take to an area terminal .....I think you will do well.  In some instances, you may not need to be a semi

driver.   I've been gather quotes, and some places are a buck cheaper a mile.  The question is, what does it cost you

to drive a mile.....and that's subjective.....do you figure in the cost of the rig......pay yourself, or just fuel, tires etc.

But then again, I've seen some "premium" situations, that I don't see.  There was a soybean that has some "interesting"

properties, but only paying 30 to 35 cents a bu, and was a ways away.....so they was only wanting local, but still

again, I still think 30 to 35 cents a bu is a bit small, for all the expense and etc.

 

The next leg to fall off the bar stool is that of the fertilizer/chemical/seed deal........

 

the coops here still are doing good.....but that could be changing.......the rates being thrown around for fert app or spraying

is $7 an acre or more.......that's I think about the limit.  True, their books might show that........but my books says no.

 

-There are becoming more and more "checmical dealers"........got one down the road a ways........can usually beat almost everyone

on everything, but pays to do you shopping.......found a local coop cheaper on one chem

 

more and more people doing their own spraying.....and it's becoming easy.......as long as you can mix it right, we have electronics

that can do the rest (almost)......a guidance system is less than $2000 that's pretty impressive....and a simple controler

system, but which is functional, is less than $1500.......if you figure in the cost of the application alone,  then figure in the mark up

on the chemical......then perhaps at times, the most costly, is things are sprayed  when needed..........not nice having to 

wait 2 weeks to have something sprayed when it needed to be done yesterday.

 

the last is fertilizer...you can now order a semi-load yourself.  and they haul it righ to the ponderosa.  The problem is you need

a containment system, which can cost a little.......but you can put on the liquid N via your sprayer...the phos you can also

use liquid (but more costly than dry).....some places NH3 is getting had to get, so going to urea....again, order a semi load,

have a place to put it.....priced a new basic 5 ton spreader, right around $15,000.....and use that $2000 guidance unit

to keep you fairly in line when you spread.

 

its getting almost to the point........what is a coop needed for (other than taking your money).........

 

about the only time a coop is handy, is when you get into a mess, have some grain not in the best of shape or something wrong,

they'll take it, but you might have to donate half it to the coop.

 

 

 

 

0 Kudos