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Veteran Advisor

As Dry as thing are West

of the Mississippi River, we may be 4 months away from $7 corn, $17 beans. $10 wheat.  we'll see.

 

 

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16 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: As Dry as thing are West

Link to US Drought Map:

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu  

 

 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: As Dry as thing are West

Seems like the other thread was deleted?

 

 

For today's performance, "wrightcattle" will play the part "MT Tiger"  :smileywink:

 

Just for sake of clarification, what do you consider the "western" cornbelt? Which states would be

the NW cornbelt? Not many good acres of corn in the NW belt is my guess?

 

Also, if the Dakota's (assuming that is what you mean by NW cornbelt) burn up, the weather pattern

to create that condition pumps lots of cool air down into 100% of the rest of the corn growing regions in

the country, which would be very unlikely to create a national supply disruption. IL/IA/IN could have

near ideal conditions in that scenario. jmo

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Veteran Advisor

Re: As Dry as thing are West

Well they just paged everyone a few minutes
Ago, no controlled burning until further notice.
Grass is tinder dry, temps in the low 80's
Today....there. is a chance of precipitation
Wednesday, the amount a trace to
.05
People, we are fast approaching critical mass.
Little moisture. Maybe top few inches are
Moist, but from there on down bone
dry, and these temps, in March, will
Dry things out, get the wheat all excited,
And then bang, a cold snap.
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Honored Advisor

Re: As Dry as thing are West

All of this makes no difference.......until the traders in Chicago get the memo.   Smiley Wink

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Honored Advisor

Re: As Dry as thing are West

I don`t know if we`ll have a drought or not, I hope that everyone at least gets a "haircut" on yields, cuz if we raise a big crop "again" we will be in such a hole that it will take years to dig ourselves out. Yes, you can go broke while raising 250bu corn and 70bu beans.

 

Here`s the trouble with weather talk at this point in time. Bearish gurus/analysts have already positioned themselves for a big crop and low prices, they are fully invested in tanking prices, the more that prices fall the bigger the smile on their faces.  If we get a drought, they are going to spend a couple months whistling through the graveyard.  They will say things like "This is a gifthorse selling opportunity!"  and my favorite "Don`t bet against the American Farmer...Hooo Rah!".

 

They won`t want to buy a call or whatever is that they do when they are short in a rising market, so they will first try to jawbone the market down.  So, it might be late summer before a drought sinks in...maybe even after the Janurary final production report.   Or maybe they are right and it`s a monster crop coming, I guess, we`ll see.  

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Senior Advisor

Re: As Dry as thing are West

In terms of agriculture I'd say we're in a swing time when crops are either not planted or aren't drawing a lot of moisture. The drought pattern in some areas is long term but could turn more beneficial. A trader can afford to wait. When planting time comes we are always betting on the come.

 

This is one reason the paper trade tends to be a lagging indicator. Just part of the game. As soon as they think a drying trend is a real threat to overall prices the farmers are already in deep trouble. Although paper is supposed to assume risk and provide liquidity, in reality it assumes little risk until it's positive the trend is well formed and maturing. They as traders, and us as farmers don't really want to take a position until we 'know'. Unfortunately the farmer takes a position as soon they plant.

 

Crop insurance should alleviate the situation. The reason you have to decide to take crop insurance on a specific date is it would be more expensive if we could all wait until we knew we were going to have losses.

 

In didn't take crop insurance.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: As Dry as thing are West

Palouser.....I'm glad I'm not your banker
so I can take a first on your crop ins!
I would so tho it would be prudent to
Take something. If you want to walk
The highwire, without a net, you've got
More guts than I do.
Granted in corn country you might be different but out here in the high and dry
Plains, things not rosey.
You are right, most of the "market makers"
Have made up their minds.
Ya know the cftc was supposed to look
Into things like that.

When was the.last time they did anything?
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Veteran Contributor

Re: As Dry as thing are West

dry in Brazil, too...

 

 

Dry weather, costly fertilizer may hurt Brazil, Ukraine corn output

http://www.agprofessional.com/news/dry-weather-costly-fertilizer-may-hurt-brazil-ukraine-corn-output

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Veteran Advisor

Re: As Dry as thing are West

Palouser....I hate this autocorrect!

I would urge you to get some sort of crop
Insurance, it would at least give you enough
To live and fight again another year. There
Are so few of us on here to fight with each
Other, we don't need to loose any more
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