Dry dominos now,

[wrightcattle]

Sounds like the Governor of Washington State has declared a Statewide drouth disaster there.

CA is drouth.

bet a bunch of others fill in with drouth declarations now too.

.

[turdypointbuck]

Bastardi is calling for another garden of eden summer , similar to last year for the major growing region. Get ready for $2 corn and $6 beans.

[hardnox]

http://www.qtweather.com/showImage.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FSoilmst_Monito...

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.ph...

I tend to prefer the SMI for some purposes of evaluating soil moisture. As you can on the first link, not a lot of saturated or extremely dry area across the corn belt at this time.

At this time of year it can change in a couple of days, literally, but best guess at the moment is rapid planting progress with hint of dryness. To me that suggests a higher risk of fat tail outcomes- above average for a boomer, above average for a bust. But even then, you might be talking at most a 1.5:10 probability of both as compared to a normal 1:10. Which still leaves 70% somewhere in between.

All things being equal (which they're not) if you break the middle 70% into deciles, probably all but the highest yield 1 or maybe 2 probably result in prices at least back here sometime before winter, even if the markeets are currently establishing a downtrend or close to it.

So I'd probably guard against a sharp drop in price by harvest and leave the upside open.

Second link- SOI might hint very mildly at a change in the current pattern if you happen to believe in any of that.

[OKdon]

I suspect that Palouser is not worried about living or fighting another year. If he doesn't get a crop this year or the next  he might be bent but won't be broke. Just saying!

[Palouser]

..... is mainly long term hydrology (mt snowpack) than anything else. The amount of soil moisture in my area is normal so dryland farming isn't affected at my elevation. In fact, I'm not doing any fieldwork the next couple of days due to the last rain. The lower elevation deep furrow summer fallow country had trouble reaching moisture when seeding but has moisture too. Cold weather early in the winter knocked back development.

You guys on the Plains would have little concept of how reliable our moisture is, even the areas that are 10-12" a year or less.

The main issue for summer moisture will be fruit orchards (apple, cherry, stone fruits) and some alfalfa that depend on irrigation from rivers fed by snowpack from the east slopes of the Cascades. The mountains got plenty of moisture but too warm to get a snowpack. Some mountains in the Cascades get over 1000" of snow a winter. Paradise Lodge on the south side of Mt Rainier got 1200" one year. That lodge is at the base of the mountain slope. The Columbia River system gets much of its water from Canada and west slopes of the Rockies and is in good shape. But little wheat is irrigated. Irrigation goes mainly for high value crops.

[elcheapo]

Farming fruits....oops that didn't come out
right!

I've thought how much different it must be
Raising fruits. I've always thought a fellow
Could make good money raising fruits have
Your own semi and. Sell here in the Midwest
Where it is so high.
But I'll admit I know little on economics
Of it, but boy i would love being able
To have all the trees as you waltz out
The house, but 3 to 5 yrs before any
Money, then spray, water, mowing, labor,
and I have not much of an idea on
Yeild or price.

[Jameshh1964]

Filbert prices are through the roof. Conventional kernels @ $6.50/lb and organic @$8.00 and rising. There are so many new acres of filberts in the Willamette Valley it is astounding. Looks like most new orchards are being set up with drip irrigation. The new blight resistant varieties make life alot easier, though its a shame I won't likely have the opportunity to have my grand kids taste a Barcelona or Enis filbert; they are all dying and being replaced with new varieties of lesser flavor (in my opinion anyway).