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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

As if things weren't bad enough, ...soybean carryout.

  As if things weren't bad enough, we've arrived at the point of the market year where we can begin to make some projections as to where we're going to end up. Historically, by the end of January we've very consistently crushed 42% of the beans we're going to use in a market year.  Likewise, quite consistently,  by the second week of March, we've sold 89% of the beans we're going to ultimately export in the market year.

   After a little bit of numerical prestidigitation, this suggests that soybean exports will be a dismal 40 million MT and crush only very modestly higher than last year.  Therefore, despite the fact that we only harvested 96 MMT of soybeans our carryout will be closer to 800 million bushel than the 475 million bushel the USDA has been projecting.

  If we plant anything like 84 million acres of soybeans and get anything like a decent yield the Chinese better buy one hellova bunch of beans next year.

crush, expt, carry-page-001.jpg
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15 Replies
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: As if things weren't bad enough, ...soybean carryout.

“Trade wars are easy to win!”

Now, I wonder who said that?

”Markets, once lost, take a long time to get back.”

Now, I wonder who said that?

The first one - our con man president, who has never heard of negotiations, and the many years it took to make the trade deals we had with China.  His “bull in the China shop” attitude, was to destroy years of negotiations, tear up the existing agreements, and go, “There!  So you like that?!?”  You that voted for him cheered and whooped and loved slogans like “Lock her up!” and to the question of who will pay for the wall, the recurring theme was of course “Mexico!!!”   Fools....

You don’t negotiate the way Trump does, and expect a favorable outcome.  It may happen on his job sites that way, where he can screw his contractors and get away with it.  But the Chinese are beyond good businessmen - they are an honorable people, with a long history behind them.  Trump slapped every one in their country in the face with the trade agreement he ripped up, and now did it again with this CV19 thing of his - calling it  Chinese disease.  

Then, the trade agreement that he made, this great trade agreement done with much fanfare, has turned out to be not worth the paper it was printed on.

Trump, and his administration are not honorable people.  They take, take, take.  There are no negotiations.  And this is what you get as a result.  Seriously - would you do business with Trump, knowing his record of screwing contractors over?  And you really thought he was going to be great for America and farmers for sure?  What a joke....

So now you farmers are left holding the bag, er, bins full of a perishable commodities, and you expect the American people to bail you out again.  Yeah, right.  And where’s that next check going to come from?  America is in a world of hurt right now, and the buck stops with one man, who accepts no responsibility, offers no apologies ever, and yet, there are those on here that support him and his regime.  Drain the swamp, yeah, right.  Fools...

Jen

ps - the second one was me, a long time ago before I got kicked off, because y’all didn’t like what I had to say.  And I’m sure you probably still don’t.  But I was, and I am, right.  You may hate me for what I write - but you know I am just that - right...

jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: As if things weren't bad enough, ...soybean carryout.

More farms will fail.  Probably many more, but hey, it’ll give that fellow on here that was hoping for farm failures, the ability to buy all that land he wanted.  So he can produce more, with no where to sell it....Good luck, and may the odds always be in your favor....

Right now though, they certainly aren’t.

Jen

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: As if things weren't bad enough, ...soybean carryout.

I want a wall up and I ALWAYS assumed the it would be my tax money funding it and I`m more than alright with that.  The thing is FOLLOW THE LAW, don`t catch & release and hope they show up for their court date instead catch them and throw them back in the lake where they came...it ain`t rocket science.  Issue "green cards" if there are "jobs Americans won`t do" where a job in done by a foreigner and he goes back to his country and called back if needed for a new job.  A wall is nice as a reminder to those digging under or crawling over that they shouldn`t be doing that, but if both countries enforce laws, a wall isn`t really needed, things got pretty lax post-NAFTA.

 

So, China not buying $10 Billion in US soybeans unless we shut up and buy $400 Billion  MORE in Walmart crap is a "good deal"...in what universe???  Last 30 years, we sure proved that trade wars are easy to lose, I`ll tell ya that.   Trade Wars are easy to win if all 535 congress members represented the United States instead of the People`s republic of China, who funds many of their campaigns (that`s far bigger scandal than a senator selling stocks during the flu outbreak).  

https://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/11/bloomberg-news-china-problem/281491/ 

snip:

according to Bloomberg News employees, Bloomberg editor in chief Matthew Winkler informed reporters by telephone on October 29 that Bloomberg would not publish their investigative story linking China’s wealthiest men to the country’s top leaders, because of concerns the story would anger the Chinese government and might elicit retribution in the form of denied visas for reporters. Winkler denied the employees’ allegations, telling the Times the stories “were active and not spiked.”

----------------------------------------------

These guys won`t buy $10 billion in beans from us unless this continues.  My question were some of you people asleep during high school economics?

 

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: You better get a new graph, besides this has nothing to do with China, it's about the acres.

  You better get a new graph, after three years, our trade deficit is right where it started, minus $346 billion. If trump's purpose for his trade war was to reduce the trade deficit, he's a total failure.

  •   But don't worry, it looks like the virus will do what trump couldn't, reduce trade.  Just hope you live to see it.
ksimpke
Contributor

Re: You better get a new graph, besides this has nothing to do with China, it's about the acres.

Good Sunday morning everybody . 

There just may be another player here guys and gals - And it's S.A. - The reason beans jumped 17 the other day was reports that some ports in Argie had shut down loading out beans because of the virus , then this morning that Brazil workers are thinking strike - because of the virus . Now it will be interesting to watch for river bids ( around here ) they may be the telling story if they need the beans down south to load out . Those big boats will not set long to be waiting to load . 

 

jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: As if things weren't bad enough, ...soybean carryout.

You, like Trump, refuse to understand.

I never said the the trade deals didn’t need to be redone.  But there is a right way - negotiations with world involvement, and the wrong way - a rouge president who knows it all better than anyone, and just does stuff because he knows better than anyone. 

Ha blew it with China - big time.  BIG TIME.  You refuse to see it, because you need to protect Trump at all cost.  If Trump was as great as he says and thinks he is, he wouldn’t need his army of head bobbers around him.  

We wouldn’t need is handlers coming on to “explain” what he said.  We know what he said.  We saw it live - we saw it in video clips - until we get someone from his administration that comes on and says, “No, he didn’t say that.”   

And here you and your buddies are, day in, day out, toeing the company line.  You, and all Trump’s liars, have less integrity than he has.  And he, of course has none.

It is time for America to come together, but Trump has made that impossible under his leadership.  

Too bad  - we had a great country.  The arrogance of Trump and his ardent supporters like yourself, has destroyed what we had to offer the world.  That was hope.  

Trump hasn’t made this country great, he has turned America away from the rest of the world.  Trump’s handlers on a daily basis have to remain him how great he is - you see it every time he has any sort of public gathering.  It’s sickening - it really is.   

And the rest of the world, is finding it’s time to turn their backs, on us.  America was great....no more.

Jen

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: You better get a new graph, besides this has nothing to do with China, it's about the acres.

Rick, we only got the new Phase One with China signed a couple months ago, before then the not so loyal opposition (Democrats) and "chamber of commerce Repubs" wanted things to remain the same, so there was 2 years of ordering from China to avoid upcoming tariffs, so that skewed the trade numbers.   Now Coronavirus? I see most Americans that reportedly couldn`t cover a $400 emergency bill are now maxing their credit cards on extra toilet paper buying big screen tvs in the future.  China where the whole mess started still needs to eat and promised to buy $40 billion in ag products, I don`t see them affording to back out with their number 1 export taker (the US).

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unlgrad
Senior Contributor

Re: As if things weren't bad enough, ...soybean carryout.

   You realize the only way to have stopped the virus was to close all borders on the day that it was announced in China.  All countries would have had to to do the same.  Since the virus started in the Wuhan province, guess what , the virus came from China.   20/20 hindsight makes anyone look like an expert.   You and Trump both sound alike,  "the other one is the idiot".   My main concern is keeping my family safe and unfortunately if we have to work from home to help stem this virus, that is what we will do.  Plans have been made to still plant, spray and do repair work on the equipment.  Trump is not the cause of this pandemic,  the Chinese put their tariffs on our beans, paid more for Brazillian beans last fall and have not honored trade agreements in the past.  Remember how much corn and wheat that were to buy annually from losing  at the WTO.  So if saying that the virus that came from China is an insult to the Chinese.   I guess then I also insulted them. 

 

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: As if things weren't bad enough, ...soybean carryout.

The   Arrogance  of  the  Privileged , is  displaying  how  effective  it  is,  in  dealing  with  the  Covid  of  Isolationism - - -