As my buddy likes to say..."Aim low, they might be riding Shetlands"
Soybeans look as if they are the only market with any real fight left in them, corn and wheat continue to like beaten dogs. The soybean bulls have gotten somewhat reenergized by record soy imports reported into China...again! Even more important may be the fact "crush margins" in China continue to remain positive despite what appears to be a glut of available soybeans. Here at home the cash-markets has rebounded to some degree as talk circulates that end-users might not have as much coverage as they were leading on. Basically meaning they are going to need more old-crop soybeans. Don't forget NOPA will be out next week week (Wednesday I think) with more specific numbers on the "crush." The "cold-weather" here in the US is also causing more fear and talk in regards to poor pod development. Will the beans have enough heat units and or sunlight to fully develop? Are conditions in some areas simply too wet and too cool? or on the flip side are some areas still too dry? Remember, some fairly large bean producing areas are running behind on moisture and will definitely need some rains to get their beans to yield.
Moving forward the next couple of trading sessions it will be ALL about the USDA report (scheduled for release on Monday). Remember, not only is this the first report of the year where they use farmer "surveys" to adjust yields, but this is also when we get to see the 14-state "resurvey" numbers they came up with for soybean acres. To say there could be some "wild-cards" would be an understatement. As my buddy likes to say..."Aim low, they might be riding Shetlands"