? At what price

[Hobbyfarmer]

What price would a farmer in the interior of Brazil recieve for corn that would be hauled 300 mile by truck then loaded on a boat sent here reloaded on a barge then sent Up river reloaded again on a train and railed another 300+ miles to the end user?

The price here right now is $7.37

Can he produce it for that? Will it be pre-ground by the time it arrives?

[GoredHusker]

I believe I read on Allendale where it's being laid in from SA delivered at $7.08. 

[Kstater85]

We don't need to worry about the 15 vessels that have traded to USA.   What the price is the 50+ vessels trading at that are going to Japan.   The Japan that is supposed to be our best corn customer internationally.   What could corn exports really be with us this expensive?  Maybe 800M?

Questions that need pondered.

[Palouser]

The interior of Brazil is much further than 300 miles, unfortunately for them.

[sw363535]

Hobby,

Didn't the pretty girl at the meeting last week say something for farmers was priced in brazil higher than in the US.  I am thinking it was beans.  But at the time, I thought "there was an issue we needed to revisit", but her english may not have stood the Q & A. -------------- but then again I was obviously distracted......

Good post yesterday,  as the typical "good price/harvest" pressure issues make grains available----we are seeing some "fast & furious" "get it while you can"--where you can --movement.  And importing from SA in Oct is a little extreme. Probably another where you can/ when you can issue.  What an interesting year this might be.  New territory for the old USA.

When Marketeye said the farmer with the Massey combine told that gal there wasn't enough room in his cab, "she would have to sit on his lap",,,,,, ............ I think I lost a few minutes after that--(like a concussion)------- Spent ten minutes thinking "I need to shake that guys hand"-------------------Farmers,  always thinkin'.................

[Hobbyfarmer]

"Didn't the pretty girl at the meeting last week say something for farmers was priced in brazil higher than in the US."

Yes she did, goes back to they sold too much before they knew they had a weather problem. Kind of what it looks like to me right now...right here in the USA, 70 to 80% of this years production already sold here too. Hows that going to work out in a few months?

I'll bet quite a bit of their projected crop is already priced too.

Pal: I know many farms are way farther than 300 miles. After 300 miles on a dirt trail it starts to get to the point of dimishing returns. Especially on a high volume crop like corn.

To raise corn, it just flat out takes more fertilizers etc trucked in and last time I checked Phos, N, and K, even lime, were not being given away overseas or down younder either.

Till some of those roads, rails, and ports get built, rebuilt, and expanded at any cheaper prices than these they can;t do it either can they?

So my ? still stands what does the farmer that is 300 to 500+ miles down a dirt road get for his corn at the farm gate?

[sw363535]

It was clear the brazil couple did not think they were ready for a bug(lets try big---not bug) switch to corn.  Not for a few years.  She said it would take railroads that are still in the planning stages.

[GoredHusker]

Whatever happened to the agreement that was supposedly reached between Brazil and China a few years back that was soybeans for infrastructure where China would build infrastructure in Brazil for a guaranteed supply of beans? I remember at the time it was kind of a big deal, but I haven't heard anything about it for a couple of years.

[Palouser]

I went to Brazil in 2001 and knew much of the info at the time. Alot has changed, including a higher $Real which hurts farmers there for sales. Perhaps somebody from Brazil can update us on current transport costs to ports. Parana is well situated but I would guess most production is much farther than 300 miles from the coast. Part of the problem is the shipping ports are to the south for the most part (much of the shipping has to angle at a SE route) and I don't know what the current situation is for the barge point on the Amazon - which is still a long ways from most of the production.

Lines of trucks 30 miles long aren't unusual at the ports and people live and fix meals from their trucks. New driver  rules are hampering turn around time. In the past farmers sometimes were shutting down waiting for trucks to return. 

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Someone down there wised up that it wasn't in their best interest long term......

As stated many times.......the next several decades or even longer will be marked by a resource war......water, land, minerals.......

They wised up........China generally speaking is resource poor........and have a whole bunch of people........

Look at what the canadian government did when BHP bid for POT...........

Markets have ebbs and flows.......and sometimes they are violent.........and the grain complex may be do for a near term correction.........but make no mistake, we are in a bull super cycle........

30's to 70's to 90's to 08 to 12.......the cycle is getting shorter........

If you don't at least acknowledge this time is different.......then you are living in the past.......don't be scared, you can still manage risk and survive........and still be bullish..........