? At what price

[bigrock4076903]

...... and that is why so much investment money is moving into land.  land cycle is different this time - cash deals and cash down.   

grain business will go the route of the chicken and hog industries.

[ECIN]

Good morning all -- Was just wondering here , with all the talk about importing corn from S.A. and at what price ? What about all the corn that was contracted for fall or Jan. Delivery ? at What price ? 5.50 -- 5.75 ?  This will come into pay soon then we will be talking about  S.A. corn at 7 versus 5.50 corn -right ?   I bet end users that had locked in some of that  can't wait for the first of the year , huh ?

[Hobbyfarmer]

Welcome, aboard ECIN

I wonder if there is much % wise coming in in Jan or if most of it is already in @ the fall harvest time frame.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

The new year dynamic will be different this go around.....for many reasons, one of which being the drought......paper bushels from insurance......

Also, I think you saw some of this already unfold as the deferred was not commanding a premium......yet.....but with every hand to mouth market, it appears like backwardation, but in reality they want it know and later, but gotta focus on one thing at a time..........

[ECIN]

Thanks Hobby

Good point MT - But maybe a bigger point on deferred is , wonder how much of that will be delivered in say Jan ? Here in East Central IN we are pretty short on corn , one farmer stopped by a month ago and told me he was aleast 20 to 30 short on contracted corn for Jan .

[Hobbyfarmer]

20 to 30    thousand bushels?

Will this make him a buyer too? or can he just "cash out"

[Hobbyfarmer]

Ok got an Answer, ECIN called me and said it was bu that were short and that it was quite a few in East Central Indiana that were in the tank for selling too many bu's early. Some will be able to cash out but the set for the buy out is unknown by us. Some have been rumored to have a delivery only contract.

50 days ago you could import corn from S A and make it work in the heart of the Eastern corn belt but NOT NOW. It may be $40 a ton cheaper at the port in SA but a boat ride to here then put it in a barge then move it to a rail car ....nope not going to be cheaper.

[sw363535]

So ECIN,

Are you thinking the producers who are short are going to be stuck with the additional cost of getting that "$5.75" replacement corn in from SA??    I would suppose they will at least be stuck with the futures difference which will make that SA corn fairly cheap for the end user even with the freight.

[ECIN]

sw :  from what I have been told , the elevators are just haveing anybody short to just make up the diff. in futures and contract price but as you said , it would still guarantee the buyer with cheaper corn .  No idea on where they will get the replacement corn from .

On the flip side , I have talked to a friend in IL that said in his area they want the corn -- not money , they need the corn .

I think in the long term that he problem around here will be sourceing corn for Dec. on as of now alot of the new corn is headed to town , don't want to chance afla. growing in bins later , it would not be good to have a Jan contract covered now but lose it to alfa. later = alot of corn around here is already in the pipeline and we not be a player come Jan , Feb,  March .