Aussie wheat

[llakmf]

Just saw the pictures from Australia, thanks to Gail Martell. I have been bawling about conditions around here, but what I saw this is a cake walk. Grasshoppers totally covering the road to poisonous snakes in the middle of the road. The pictures that take your attention, 400,000 dollar combines unloading in the mud preparing to be pulled out. stuck to both axles. Seriously I haven't seen conditions like this since 72. Also of note, Argie crop still in detriation. With the southern hempshire suspect, I believe its up into the spring maybe quite a bit.

[Red Steele]

Have the pictures been on the CBS evening news yet? That is usually a sign that the top is just about in....the last people to hear about something like that are the armchair speculators, and they take it in the shorts every time. Human nature.

[rightone]

pretty decent. MO.

AR is a non predictable grain supply anyway ( has been that way for 5 years because of the "cristina" screwed up govt ).

AU?  ho hmm...was expected to be a record crop by 22 to 25% over the norm...thus even if they don't get 20% harvested...well just do the math...STILL almost a record.

Just do NOT see much upside in this market based on supposed supply fear talk.

Perhaps a touch of upside ( say $1 ) just due to a REAL good economy in many other countries.

[Palouser]

The problem in Oz is not quantity, it's quality. If 50% of the wheat is graded as feed then it is a big deal in a year with smaller stocks of high protein and high quality wheat. This is an issue of several years running.

[Palouser]

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/australia-rains-spark-fears-for-vomitoxin-in-wheat--2631.html

[rightone]

thee usa wheat issue to in May / June.

LOTTA wheat discounted to the $3 per bu level then ( some in the 2's too ) in the SW.

GOOD deal for feeders ( still is, for those that stocked up ). 

No sense buying corn for 4+ when wheat is $3.

ALL GRAIN started to get pretty "current" from a marketing stand on that from July on too.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/new/2010/12/20/dry-week-little-help-to-australia-wheat-harvest/

[Artifice]

Lets work out the #s. if aussie land ‘s poor quality cuts back their

Export quality potential, how much ?  How much can the US supply to make that up.

Is what a bubble relative to S&D or    not ?

[Palouser]

You should know the answers to your own questions judging by your former opinions.