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Senior Contributor

B-Team Floor Talk, Wednesday, May 13

Well, we aren't exactly lighting the world on fire this morning as we turn around after yesterday's USDA data. July corn's 3 cents lower at $3.58 per bushel, while the new-crop December contract is 2 cents lower at $3.74. July wheat is 7 cents lower at $4.73 1/2, while the December contract is 7 1/2 lower at $4.97. Soybeans remain in the black; the July contract is 2 cents higher at $9.57 1/2 per bushel, while the November contract is 1/2 cent higher at $9.31 1/4.


Sounds like Mother Nature couldn't be in a brighter spotlight in the trade, it sounds like. The prevailing mindset seems to be one that "the world's awash in grain and we're going to have to have really, really bad weather to trim yield potential this year and ultimately bring prices back up. I asked one trader if he thought the overnight trade's relative strength had any legs, and he said "By now we can see that the legs have been chopped. And chop is what we should probably get used to. We have to change the conversation to something to limit supply for all grains."


And hey, MT, on to your weather point here: I talked to Don Keeney, our meteorologist friend at MDA Weather Services, and he said that timeframe you mention will feature a lot of warmer-than-normal temps and little, if any, moisture, but he said "we’re still expecting generally cooler and wetter conditions for most of the summer months." 




Well, everybody still alive after yesterday's crazy WASDE-fueled price movement? Whew. Heck of a day for the B-Team trying to keep up with everything! Ha! 


Soybeans and wheat are trying to stay in the black this morning while corn's slipped into the red. Sounds like there's been some major volatility in the macro markets, with some speculation that could work its way into the grains. Check out Scott Shellady's post this morning for more on that.  


In overnight trading, the July new-crop corn contract is 1 3/4 cents lower at $3.59 1/4 per bushel, while the new-crop December contact is 1 cent lower at $3.75. The July soybean contract is 3 3/4 cents higher at $9.59 1/4, whiel the November new-crop contract is 3 1/4 cents higher at $9.34. The July wheat contract is 1 cent higher at $4.81 1/2 per bushel, while the December contract is 3/4 cent higher at $5.05 1/4.


It's all about that weather right now moving forward for the trade now that yesterday's numbers are out. Here's a quote -- one that's a bit on the ominous side for the grain bulls -- from a trader yesterday afternoon after the dust had started settling from the report:


"When you think about the last 5 or 6 years, you could not help but look at the weather and think the extreme is the norm. Something extreme has happened every year to change how things are priced," says Virginia McGathey, President, McGathey Commodities. "Something completely outlandish is the only thing that could come in here and take prices higher, and even if we have something extreme happen in the U.S., there is so much grain in the world that it would cause a hiccup, but I don't know if it would create a trend around the world."


Right now, that's not really in the cards. Sounds like the rain's going to kick up this weekend, but not everywhere. Here's what our friends at MDA Weather Services are seeing for rainfall over the next few days. Here's a little more on that outlook for the next few days. 


It's fairly chilly here this morning, but it's going to warm up later today. My garden needs it! Now, if I can just keep my fiend mutt from digging everything up!


Hey, speaking of digging things up, the B-Team'll be in all day, so I'll see what I can dig up on today's trade. What else is shakin' out there today? 




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Senior Advisor

Re: B-Team Floor Talk, Wednesday, May 13

Today is only a blip

We shall see what the summer brings

Evapo rates of nearly 1/2 inch per day on corn that is sucking close to 1/2 inch per day changes the land scape

I would rather be dry from April 20th-June 20th then have rain the rest of the summer

Had anywhere from 3.5-6 total last week alone and more coming in tonight.

Yes our profile is full. Too full actually. But that doesn't matter because around here you are a week away from a drought

FWIW. One of the weather sites I follow made a comment yesterday that they may change their outlook for the eastern cornbelt this summer to hotter and drier

Keep in mind a normal summer usually means it gets hot with dry stretches. It also means a normal crop not trend line. Normal would be much closer to 150-155. Not 166.

Even using USDA inflates acres that's a 12.2-12.7B crop. About 1B-1.5B under current estimates. Ask your contacts what that does to the corn market?

Re: B-Team Floor Talk, Wednesday, May 13

40 year trend is 162 usda linear trend is 168.  normal isnt 155.

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