B-Team Floor Talk for Friday, 12.30

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

So, some smart-alek here at the office keeps pulling the fire alarm (either that or the building's on fire!), so I better make this brief so I can go track them down and slap 'em around! Actually, maybe it's Marketeye Mike, not wanting me to report today's closing prices! And, here's why: We're ending 2011 with higher prices across the board: March corn was 8 1/2 cents higher at $6.46 1/2, January soybeans were 11 cents higher at $11.98 1/2 and March wheat was 7 1/2 cents higher at $6.52 3/4.

So, will this continue? Scott Shellady's got a few words on this over in his Optioneye post for today. Check that out here. Oh yes, and remember, next week's trade won't resume until Tuesday morning at the usual time. No overnight trade Monday night/Tuesday a.m.

Anyway, thanks again, everybody, for hanging in with the B-Team this week. Appreciate all the interaction and kind words! And, remember to really let Mike have it next week when he gets back for letting the B-Team drive the markets so much higher! Ha! 

Hey, have a fun and safe New Year's Eve (remember, it's amateur night, so stay extra safe out there!), and here's wishing you and your family and friends the most prosperous of years to come in 2012!

Thanks again, all. Have a great rest of your day and we'll see you here next week! 

Jeff

______________________

At the open, March corn is 6 1/2 cents higher at $6.44 1/2 per bushel, January beans are 9 1/4 higher at $11.96 3/4 and March wheat is 8 cents higher at $6.53 1/4.

So, export numbers were sort of "blah," the U.S. Dollar Index is slightly lower and crude oil's slightly lower too. All slightly bearish, right? Must be some major positioning going on in Chicago this morning, then, right? And, a lot more concern about this S.A. weather situation, maybe? 

Maybe everybody just wants to end the year on a high note? Speaking of ending the year, anybody have any wild new year's plans or crazy new year's resolutions? Let's hear 'em! With my house full of young gals, I'll be lucky to stay awake until 10:00 new year's eve, let alone midnight! 

More in a few...

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Just saw a couple notes on these Export Sales numbers we saw out this morning. Analysts are calling the bean export numbers "solid" but corn export numbers are still a little on the disappointing side.

• More on the corn numbers 
• More on the bean numbers 

And it sounds like today's early strength looks to close out the year higher. So, I will have an entire year to brag to Mike, right? Surely you all will help me with that, won't you? 

Opening prices here in a sec...

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Good morning, all. All the traders must know the B-Team's in for the last time this week, so they want to send me out of here on a good note! Early calls are higher across the board -- and this time, beans aren't leading the charge. Corn's seen starting the day 6-8 cents higher, wheat 5-7 higher and beans 3-5 higher. 

As of a few minutes ago in the overnight trade, March corn was 6 1/2 cents higher at $6.44 1/2, January beans were 3 3/4 higher at $11.91 1/4 and March wheat was 5 1/2 higher at $6.50 3/4. 

Was it this morning's Export Sales numbers that's got the grains higher? Here's a rundown of those numbers. 

And, we're seeing some more numbers on the South American weather story from Freese-Notis this morning:

December will go into the record books as coniderably drier than normal month in much of the main Argentine growing area. December will be less than half of normal at most reporting stations in Cordoba, Santa Fe, Entre Rios, La Pampa, and northern Buenos Aires. A few of these locations have had less than 10% of normal rainfall. Some rain did fall in parts of Santa Fe and Entre Rios about a week ago, and some rain fell in parts of Cordoba and La Pampa overnight, but nearly all of this area badly needs rain. Not much rain is seen into early January in most of Argentina. Daytime highs will be frequently in the 90's, and some western areas could reach 100 on a few days. 

• Here's more on that

Alright, one more day with the B-Team! More in a few...

Jeff

[BA Deere]

Jeff, with bringing markets like this, you and the B-team are wellcome anytime.  Happy New Year!

[Pupdaddy]

I don't know how the rest of the guys feel, but if having the "B" team doing the reporting from the floor makes the price go up like it has the last week, then I'm more than willing to toss in a few bucks to extend Mike's vacation..LOL.

...Hope you're having a great time Jeff, if this keeps up for a while we may have to kick in some bucks to send you on a vacation too...LOL

...Happy New Year to all the folks at Agriculture.com

[agmr]

Dec 30

Argentina update: similarities between 2008 / 2011

Actual drought affecting the Pampas is very similar with that of 2008 that caused grain losses of up to 35 mln tons . That year ttl grain production went from an initial estimate of 96 to 62 mln tns.

Soil moisture at this moment is very similar with 2008 : very bad in almost all regions studied  , a “bit” better than 08 . Its early to quantify the final damage , but all alarms are off.

75-80% of the core corn production area of the Pampas ( Cordoba-Santa Fe , Buenos Aires and La Pampa) are suffering a stress jeopardizing yield potential. This wide area also produces soybeans , but at the moment corn is the most at risk , mainly those implanted in sept/oct . Its required a daily precipitation of 7-9 mm as they are in the final stage of yield definition.

Early estimates already point to a yield loss of 20% , furthermore there is a 20% of the ttl  intended area – almost 4 mln Has - still waiting for rains  to start sowing , or abt 800,000 Has.

Soybeans still doesn’t look to be suffering the same pain as corn , but the risk here is that without timely  and good rains in the next 2 weeks  almost 4 mln of the 19 mln /has intended for planting  would not be able to do so.

A county in Santa Fe “Zona de Hughes”  , an important corn/soy  producer , only got 8mm of precip during dec . In 2008 they also suffered losses due to drought , even  that  during time period aug/dec recorded 389 mm of precip . As of today they got just 266 mm in the same time frame.

Losses up to 20% wll be considered already done  in this area assuming rains , come by the 2nd week of January, will be  “ small” . They would be “moderate” the 3rd  and “severe” by the 4th wk.

[roarintiger1]

Thanks for the update.     I was just wondering, are the farmers in Argentina and Brazil able to buy crop insurance?

[agmr]

yes they do eventhough  It is not a common practice as in the US  due to much higher premiums