B-Team Floor Talk for Thursday, 12.29

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

So, has the weather improved that much in Brazil and Argentina? Or, is it more about profit-taking and perceived weather improvements down south? Whatever it was (likely a combination of all three), it sent things lower today; March corn ended the day 4 1/2 cents lower at $6.38 per bushel, March wheat was 6 cents lower at $6.45 1/4 per bushel and January beans closed out Thursday 10 3/4 cents lower at $11.87 1/2.

Everybody get a chance to see Scott Shellady's post today? Sounds like it's as quiet as a church mouse over on the floor today. Go give Scott a hard time! 

Had a brief chat with Ray Jenkins down at Cargill today. Busy day down there -- between 450 and 475 truckloads today .Sounds like everybody's trying to beat the calendar so they can take tomorrow afternoon off! Don't blame them! Anybody else hauling corn today? Darn good day to do it -- my thermometer shows 50 degrees right now!

Anyway, that's a wrap for another day for the B-Team. One more day before the A-Team returns!

Have a good one! Stay safe out there!

Jeff

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Well, it must be time for the A-Team to come back, since prices are heading lower! We're lower across the board now, March corn's 4 3/4 cents lower at $6.37 3/4 per bushel, while March wheat's 4 cents lower at $6.47 1/4 and January beans are 10 1/4 cents lower at $11.88.

Brazil's getting some rain, but it's not too widespread. Jim Bower of Bower Trading, Inc., says it's kind of a story of haves and have-nots: Those who have been getting some showers are the ones who have more rainfall chances coming up, while those who have been dry will likely stay that way in the near-term. Here's more from Jim:

Crops that received rain last week will be seeing increasing rainfall during the coming week while crops that did not receive much rain last week will suffer the greatest potential production damage. Southern Brazil crop conditions will have opportunity for some needed rain offering an opportunity for crops to continue getting by on limited soil moisture. Too much rain may threaten crops in Minas Gerais and Goias. 

The Dollar's still higher and it sounds like there could be a return to a focus on the European debt crisis on the trading floor. So, does this mean the South American bullish factor's going to be cancelled out by the "Eurobear?"

More in a few...

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Got a little more on this expiring ethanol blenders' tax credit. Called about half a dozen ethanol plant managers, but they were either not in their offices or thought I was some evil media type who was going to pin their rear-ends to the wall and wouldn't talk to me. But, I think the real message is that this credit's expiration shouldn't mean a whole lot to ethanol profitability, and in turn, local bids in the short term. 

• Here's more on it 

I guess one real key question is this: Sure, most plants are probably doing alright now. But, if margins are tightening a bit, at what point does that really start eating into local bids for corn? Let's hear 'em -- is there much difference in that by geography, access to grain, etc.? 

More in a few...

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So, we're starting the day mixed -- March corn traded unchaged at $6.42 1/2 per bushel while March wheat was 1/2 cent higher at $6.51 3/4 and January beans were 1 1/4 cents lower at $11.97.

The Dollar's stronger and traders are still taking some profits from the price surge earlier in the week. On top of that, weekly export sales numbers that are usually released on Thursday are delayed until tomorrow on account of the Christmas holiday break earlier this week. Sounds like traders expect those numbers to be at least slightly bullish tomorrow, based solely on the weather troubles in South America. 

Getting a little more information on this ethanol blender's tax credit expiration story. Sounds like not many folks are too worried about it changing the market dynamics too much. A couple things are clear, though: There's a good concensus that most plants have been stockpiling grain in the last few weeks as prices have slid (since about the beginning of November). And, the sugar cane crop in Brazil isn't too great (agmr, can you vouch for that?), so there's not a real threat of losing marketshare to Brazil. Exports are still moving along fairly well. So, maybe this won't mean much?

Anybody talked to their local ethanol plant folks about it? What are you hearing? 

More in a few...

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Good morning, everybody. Well, the B-Team's lucky streak looks to be over, at least judging by the way things are trading as we near this morning's open. Early calls are corn 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher, wheat 3-5 cents lower and soybeans 8-10 lower.

So, more profit-taking and positioning? Do traders expect another big bump next Tuesday after New Year's like we had this Tuesday after Christmas, so they're setting themselves up for a big day? Whatever it is, it seems like there's still plenty to worry about in South America. Did everybody see agmr's photo here last night? Wow, that's terrible. Agmr, thanks so much for providing all the info you're posting here. Really helps paint a clear picture of what's going on in your part of the world. 

Anyway, what else is on the radar today? Like we talked about briefly yesterday afternoon, the ethanol blenders tax credit is set to expire next week -- will that curtail ethanol demand? Some pretty good comments here from centralillinois earlier this morning.  So, has the ethanol business stockpiled, or will that tax credit expiration cause corn demand to slip a little more? I'll try to make some calls today and get some info on this.

And hey, our "Voice from the Parlor Pit" is back this morning! JR, you keeping things lively up your way this morning? Out milking cows in shorts and a t-shirt this morning, with this heat wave we're having? 

More in a few...

Jeff

[jrsiajdranch]

Jeff AKA BS team said

And hey, our "Voice from the Parlor Pit" is back this morning! JR, you keeping things lively up your way this morning? Out milking cows in shorts and a t-shirt this morning, with this heat wave we're having?

Not quit down to the T shirt but I did shed my coats and milked in shirtsleeves! THat just isn't right. Started sweating even.

Felt like a Cash cropper workin with NO AC! MAn I don't know how they can stand to work that hard! LOL (sarcasm off now)

Things are way livlier than I need them to be but we are staying busy. Keeps your mind off of bein poor! LOL (sarcasm off for real now)

Gotta go!

[roarintiger1]

Not sure about that picture from SA.....I read today elsewhere that their corn is in the silking stage.  A far cry from that picture.

[smokeyjay]

Jeff, not sure how much impact this might have on the markets, but, some guys around here have already priced their current inventory and deferrred it to 2012.  BIG checks coming Jan. 1.  New crop is a big "IF" as we are still trying to figure out whether we are in the drought cycle once again or things are going towards normal, whatever that is.  Very difficult to come to terms with a marketing plan when rainfall patterns and soil moisture levels are up in the air.

[kraft-t]

I imagine that corn development can vary as much in South America as it does from south texas to minnesota.