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12-07-2012 06:19 AM - edited 12-07-2012 10:50 AM
Whoa, Nellie! In the race to the bottom, corn's just pulled ahead! There's just no real news to give any momentum to the corn bulls, and that on top of some pretty "tepid" export demand, as one report puts it, and it's just a tough hill to climb for corn right now. As of a few minutes ago, March corn was 12 cents lower at 739 1/2 and January beans were 7 3/4 lower at 1483 1/2. March wheat's hanging tough at 5 1/2 lower at 856 1/2.
So, what else do you think's behind this reversal in the downward leader?
Well, we're lower, but we haven't fallen off the cliff like it looked like we might earlier. Still, definitely a big change from yesterday -- now instead of leading the charge higher, beans are leading everybody else into the tank: January beans are 10 cents lower at 14.81 1/4, March corn's 8 3/4 lower at 7.42 3/4 and march wheat's 4 3/4 lower at $8.57.
It's still a story of profit-taking, and that appears to likely be the case through today's trade altogether.
One more interesting note this morning: The International Grains Council has a report out today showing that world wheat production next year will rise 4%. That's for the 2013-2014 crop year around the world. So, either IGC doesn't think we're in that bad of shape after all, or they foresee production actually going down from the normal trendline. Because to me, if we're hearing reports of up to 25% of the U.S. wheat crop being abandoned going into next spring, then a 4% increase the following year after the kind of decline that shows isn't much to write home to mama about. Think IGC's right?
Here's confirmation of what we were just talking about -- despite the announcement of a 115K-MT soybean sale to China this morning, that's not enough to stave off the profit-taking that's hit the bean market this morning so far. Here's a little more on that.
Looks like Giolucas was right! Beans are taking a dive as we move toward the opening bell for open-outcry this morning. In the last 2 hours, January beans have lost almost 13 cents. Sliding hard. Corn and wheat are both still around 5 cents lower, so beans are clearly in the lead heading down the chute. Look out!
Good morning, everybody. Heck, I might as well just copy and paste yesterday's B-Team Report and use it to start out today, because the way prices are looking, it looks like there hasn't been a whole lot of change in market sentiment since late yesterday and through the overnight trade.
As of a few minutes ago, March corn was 3 1/4 lower at $7.48 1/4, January beans 3 3/4 higher at $14.95 and March wheat 3 1/4 lower at $8.58 3/4.
Looks like the only real new direction this morning is coming from China, where soybean futures have slipped a bit on some profit-taking. So, if that happens today here, I guess we can't be too surprised, right?
Got a note from my friend in Argentina again this morning that includes a pretty cool statement, I thought. He said they are still really struggling with all this rain, and nothing's working out very well for them down there. But, sounds like they're a resilient bunch down there. He said: "Despite the punishment of nature, the farmer is walking forward looking how to produce to feed the world."
Darn right! Hey, time to hit the coffee pot and get to making things lively around here. More in a few...
12-07-2012 07:12 AM
Boy Jeff that farmer down South said a mouth full about walking forward and feeding the world ! As far as for me , this morning started out with this farmer feeding Himself ! How about Steak and Eggs with a side of hashbrowns ! Umm - Umm ! and a big glass of OJ !
Jeff you might want to start your morning his way instead of Coffee , coffee , coffee ! researshers say that breakfast is the most important meal of the day , just a thought here , lol
BTW tomorrow thinking about ham and eggs -- I don't know Biscuits and gravey sounds pretty good too !
12-07-2012 07:43 AM
ECIN, box up some of that steak and eggs and express ship it over here! That doesn't sound too shabby!
Giolucas, I think you're right on the money there. I wouldn't at all be surprised if we lose a little on beans today. Heck, I'm actually sort of surprised profit-taking didn't hit yesterday.
Here's a question for everybody this morning (more just to satiate my own curiosity): In the long-term, which factor do you think has the most potential to move the markets: The tight demand/potential 2013 record plantings for corn, the worldwide weather situation and its influence on the wheat crop, or the South American weather situation and its effects on the soybean crop there? Feels like we could have quite a horse race among those 3 heading into next spring. What do you think?
12-07-2012 07:47 AM
Well it looks like another bad week for exports here ! as far as corn .
Just read that Taiwas MIPA bought another 60,000 MT of corn from Cargill for shipment jan 24- feb 7 at .95 over May CBT .
This is still 25 dollars less than U.S. corn
remeber last week -- taiwa bought 60,000 at 1.09 over
It going to be hard for us to catch up on what we need to export -- in my book , at this pace
12-07-2012 01:02 PM
failure to hold 7.47 likely added to stops in corn.........also failed 50 day moving average
beans failing at 15.00 ........won't look good on charts either.........key reversal at resistance as it stacks up with about an hour left to go
12-07-2012 02:24 PM
To give any context to the IGC predictions on wheat one would have to understand 'where' they think wheat production would take place. First, if a significant amount were to take place in China then it doesn't matter because it wouldn't be available to the ,market as they hold up to 1/4 of the worlds reserves at any one time. If the rise were to take place in the exporting countries then there is more significance as their reserves dropped almost 30%. In any case 4% isn't much of an improvement given the fall in production this year.
And then there is a problem with the word 'if'.