Thanks again for bearing with the B-Team this week. You all make it fun! Hope you all have a great weekend! Go Wildcats!
Here's today's wrapup:
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So, that last remark came with a caveat I forgot to mention that the trader just pointed out to me. The static level of prices where they were about half an hour ago was assuming that we would see at least some stability in the outside markets. But, crude oil and the Dow are both slipping early today, so that could fan the bearish flames a bit more than earlier expected today.
One big macro factor today was this jobs report. Previous estimates were for the economy to have added 125K new jobs, and the report showed 171K. Unemployment's still sitting at 7.9%. So, it's fairly neutral, it sounds like. What do you think?
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A trader just told me that he thinks, despite some pretty bearish news all-around this morning, volume's still pretty light, so the influence of things like lower-than-expected export numbers and improved crop weather around South America probably won't have as much of a negative impact as it normally would. And, there's still the demand situation lingering in the background despite today's export numbers. So, add it all together and he said he thinks we "will build support just under these levels, then watch the macros."
And, just in the time between I talked to him and typing this, the slide in January beans eased by a cent and a half. So, maybe we chop around at these levels the rest of the day? What do you think?
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Did somebody say Export Sales Reports? Here we go:
Corn: 167,900 MT; previous trade estimate range was 100-400K
Wheat: 362,900 MT; previous trade estimate range was 300-600K
Soybeans: 741,200 MT; previous trade estimate range was 500-700K
So, mostly neutral-bearish. One trader just told me that better rainfall prospects in northern Brazil and a drydown in soggy southern Brazil and Argentina could pressure prices today, too.
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Well, fortunately, it's the last day of the week when you'll have to be bearing with the B-Team. Thanks for making me look way smarter than I really am all week!
Anyway, on to today's prices: Looks like that "light" profit-taking either got stronger overnight, or the bulls just flat ran out of gas. Looks like early calls are mostly lower: Corn 1-3 lower, soybeans 8-10 lower and wheat unchanged to 2 cents lower. As of 6:00 AM CST, December corn was 1 3/4 lower at $7.49 1/4, December wheat was 1/4 lower at $8.68 1/4 & January soybeans were 9 1/4 lower at $15.50 3/4.
So, what's the deal this morning, you think? Just the see-saw making its way the other direction?
For you guys in the eastern Corn Belt: Is all that Sandy-induced rain starting to dry up and let you get back in the field yet?
More in a few...
JC
