Not that there are too many surprises here, but here's a wrap of what I heard from folks today:
So, now what? We just do a lot more in-depth reporting on the South American weather situation? How can we help you all with all this and what happens moving forward?
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Well, no surprises, really. Some better demand figures for both corn and soybeans, but certainly nothing that wasn't expected. One analyst told me that we'll probably see the numbers traded through today, with maybe a little hangover tomorrow, but that attention's not going to take too awful long to turn back to South America.
So, is the smart money still where it was earlier this morning?!
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China and South America might just take over today's USDA data. The growing conditions are "near ideal" in much of South America, and the speculation about China balking at U.S. grain orders in favor of cheaper stocks down south are trying to get the bears involved today. Corn's slipped a couple cents lower but beans remain higher, likely buoyed still by looking ahead to today's reports.
So, how long will they trade these numbers at 11?
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Here's one that might make you chuckle: Today's a "snow day" for federal employees in D.C. But, USDA's still shooting out today's reports.
When are we all gettin' a snow day?! Ha!
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A couple of key numbers in today's data, according to some info Al Kluis sent out this morning:
"With soybeans out of Brazil available at a $1.00 per bushel discount to current U.S. prices in February that China may cancel some U.S. soybean purchases and take the cheaper soybeans from Brazil," he says. "What I am watching: what the USDA does to corn used for ethanol in today's Corn Supply/Demand report."
So, does that mean any bullishness from tighter domestic soybean stocks in today's report will be overshadowed by cheaper Brazilian beans?
Now, think about these ethanol use numbers and all this RFS-trimming talk going on: If we see a lot lower ethanol use numbers today, will that make a lighter RFS a foregone conclusion in the next couple months? On the flipside: If we see continued strong ethanol use numbers, will that keep the current RFS -- or just a slightly-trimmed one -- alive? Or, do you think the notion that Congress would pay attention to what another federal agency's talking about is too much of a stretch?!
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Good morning, everybody. Pardon any type-Os brought on by my fingers still trying to thaw out. Boy, did winter not waste any time in getting here!
But, we ought to warm things up here later when USDA rolls out its December Stocks & WASDE reports. Sounds like soybeans could be in the driver's seat. Analysts expect USDA to peg soybean stocks just shy of 160 million bushels, one survey shows. Last month, that number was 170 million, but a year ago, it was closer to 140 million. So, will it be a big run for the bulls? Here's a little more from the wire...
Corn, on the other hand, is seen just a little below last month's estimate, and still a heck of a lot higher than last year. Here's some more on that.
So, where's your smart money sitting this morning?
I'll try to keep on top of everything. Mike's out having a minor medical procedure this morning, so if you wanna badmouth him, now's the time! Ha! Nah, he'll be alright. The real reason is because he thought having the B-Team in today might let the bulls loose!
Hey, hope everybody's furnace is runnin', the coffee's hot and your fingers are ready to type on here today. Let the B-Team have it!
More in a few...
JC
