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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

BTW, on that long term price chart

the collapse off the plateau of the super cycle happened in ‘14 coincident with a breakout in the dollar from a multi-decade downtrend.

Which was coincident with the Fed doing a little baby step tightening and tapering. The stale money still hanging around in index funds and carry trades got flushed.

The Fed and dollar matter, a lot.

As I’d fairly vaguely predicted, the very unanticipated rally in the dollar is on pause- at minimum-and we’re seeing commodity carry trades pile right back in.

I’ve softened my view on ideally seeing a modest new low in the DX. But I remain convinced they aren’t going to be able to crush the dollar like they did in the early 2000s.

That’s the argument against a commodity super cycle, although mini cycles are nice too.

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