the collapse off the plateau of the super cycle happened in ‘14 coincident with a breakout in the dollar from a multi-decade downtrend.
Which was coincident with the Fed doing a little baby step tightening and tapering. The stale money still hanging around in index funds and carry trades got flushed.
The Fed and dollar matter, a lot.
As I’d fairly vaguely predicted, the very unanticipated rally in the dollar is on pause- at minimum-and we’re seeing commodity carry trades pile right back in.
I’ve softened my view on ideally seeing a modest new low in the DX. But I remain convinced they aren’t going to be able to crush the dollar like they did in the early 2000s.
That’s the argument against a commodity super cycle, although mini cycles are nice too.
